Strukturanpassungspolitik und Wirtschaftsreform im Sudan
In einem neuen Beitrag geht der Bremer Wirtschaftsprofessor und Sudanforscher auf die informellen Netzwerke ein, die Putin nutzt, um die Goldreserven Russlands aufzustocken und so die Sanktionen des Westens zum Teil zu kompensieren (vgl. die PDF: Putin-Sanktionen-8-2022). Für die Entwicklungspolitik gegenüber Afrika ergeben sich wichtige Schlussfolgerungen, insbesondere auch für die Bundesrepublik Deutschland und die Europäische Union. Der Weser-Kurier aus Bremen hat eine Kurzfassung der Studie in der Papierausgabe vom 28. August 2022 auf der Seite 2 mit dem Titel „Putin finanziert Kriege über informelle Netzwerke“ veröffentlicht. Eine Online-Veröffentlichung zu dem Thema erfolgte am 27. August 2022; Zugang unter dem Link: https://www.weser-kurier.de/politik/ausland/putin-finanziert-seine-kriegsoperationen-ueber-informelle-netzwerke-doc7mhlaa9go1e9y7onnfx
Kurzfassung der wesentlichen Thesen:
Putin, die Sanktionen und das Gold Afrikas
Karl Wohlmuth, Universität Bremen
Der Angriffskrieg Russlands gegen die Ukraine dauert nun schon mehr als sechs Monate. Die Europäische Union ist dabei, ein siebentes Sanktionspaket zu schnüren. Doch Putin rühmt die Stärke der russischen Wirtschaft. Im Westen gibt es daher Zweifel an der Wirksamkeit der Sanktionen. Studien zeigen aber, dass Russland überaus wirksamen Sanktionen gegenübersteht. Der Propagandaapparat des Kremls zeichnet ein Bild der Wirtschaftsentwicklung, das durch umfassende Manipulation von Daten zustande kommt. Rosstat, die Statistikbehörde des Landes, wurde dem Propagandaapparat des Kremls eingegliedert. Daten über die Wirtschaftslage werden auf vielfältige Weise manipuliert, etwa durch Prognosen, die sich auf Ausgangsdaten aus den ersten Kriegstagen beziehen oder durch die selektive Präsentation von Datenreihen mit positiven Entwicklungstrends. Die sorgfältige Analyse der offiziellen Daten ergibt ein Bild, das bereits umfassende und auch unumkehrbare Wirkungen der Sanktionen zeigt.
Russland hat bereits wichtige Positionen auf den internationalen Rohstoffmärkten (vor allem bei Gas, Öl, und Kohle) verloren. Die Importabhängigkeit praktisch aller industrieller Wertschöpfungsketten von westlichen Inputs und Technologien bedeutet, dass die Produktionsverluste Russlands größer werden. Die Strategie der Importsubstitution ist schon gescheitert. Der Exodus von wesentlichen Teilen der russischen Produktionsbasis (Unternehmen, Kapital, und Talente) beschleunigt sich. Mehr als 1000 international operierende Unternehmen haben das Land verlassen. Die makroökonomische Politik kann weder die Inflationsbekämpfung noch die Strukturanpassung erreichen. Die Abkoppelung von den internationalen Finanzmärkten führt zu drastischen Veränderungen auf den heimischen Finanzmärkten, da eine lange Dauer des Krieges und eine stabile Sanktionsfront eingepreist werden. Die Sanktionspolitik des Westens ist effektiv, weil ein umfassender Strategieansatz dahintersteht. Expertengremien evaluieren die Wirksamkeit der Sanktionen.
Putin geht nicht von einem Zerbrechen des westlichen Sanktionssystems aus, sondern nutzt informelle Netzwerke, um seine Kriegsoperationen zu finanzieren. Kurz nach der Annexion der Krim im Jahr 2014 hat er den Sudan als „Schlüssel nach Afrika“ ausgemacht, um ein Netzwerk des Goldschmuggels zur Umgehung der Wirkung von Sanktionen zu etablieren. Diese Netzwerke sollen helfen, die Goldreserven der russischen Zentralbank aufzustocken. Die „Gruppe Wagner“, verharmlosend als privates Söldner- und Militärunternehmen bezeichnet, ist nunmehr in 23 afrikanischen Ländern aktiv. Die Gruppe hat die Funktion, Militärregime zu stabilisieren und lokale Armeen auszurüsten; als Gegenleistung werden Russland illegale Einnahmen aus der Überwachung von Bergbauaktivitäten und Anteile aus dem Schmuggel von hochwertigen Mineralien wie Gold zugesichert. Die „Gruppe Wagner“ hat im Sudan ein internationales Netz des Goldschmuggels etabliert; seit dem Putsch vom Oktober 2021 unterstützen die Spitzenmilitärs des Sudan ganz offen dieses „Geschäftsmodell“. Gold im Wert von Milliarden Dollars wird – vorbei an staatlichen sudanesischen Stellen und der Zentralbank - aus dem Land geschmuggelt. Dieses Geschäftsmodell wird auch in anderen afrikanischen Ländern praktiziert. Diese informellen Netzwerke sind für die Finanzierung des Ukrainekriegs und anderer Militäroperationen Russlands enorm wichtig geworden. Goldtransaktionen können durch Sanktionen wesentlich schwerer unterbunden werden. Die Sanktionen gegen die „Gruppe Wagner“ durch den Westen sind bisher wirkungslos geblieben.
Für eine neue globale Ordnung ergeben sich bedeutsame Herausforderungen. Bei drei Themen (Stabilisierung einer kooperativen und effektiven Sanktionspolitik bei Angriffskriegen, Ausgestaltung von Politiken für Reparationen und den Wiederaufbau zerstörter Regionen nach dem Ende von Angriffskriegen, Gestaltung einer neuen Sicherheitsarchitektur zur Verhinderung zukünftiger Angriffskriege und zur Vermeidung existenzieller globaler Gefährdungen) besteht offensichtlich ein immenser internationaler Handlungsbedarf. Der Weckruf des Aggressionskrieges von Russland gegen die Ukraine zeigt, dass neben der Klimakrise auch die Gefahren durch nichtprovozierte Angriffskriege neu zu bewerten sind, da die Existenz des Planeten Erde auf dem Spiel steht. Die Finanzierung von Angriffskriegen und Militäroperationen durch informelle Netzwerke und durch illegale Rohstofftransaktionen aus Entwicklungsregionen wie Afrika zeigt auch, dass die Stabilität des internationalen Finanzsystems neu austariert werden muss. Entwicklungsfeindliche „Geschäftsmodelle“, wie von der Gruppe Wagner in Afrika im Auftrag des Kremls praktiziert, wirken deutlich gegen alle 17 Nachhaltigkeitsziele, die 2015 vereinbart wurden.
In recent months, Professor Karl Wohlmuth was busy in various directions. He did various evaluations of research proposals for the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation, specifically for the Georg Forster Research Fellowship Programmes for Experienced Researchers and for the Visiting Research Fellowship Programme of the Centre of African Studies, University of Cambridge, UK, beside of routine evaluations of incoming articles and research proposals. As he was himself a scientific supervisor of Alexander von Humboldt/Georg Forster senior research fellows, he knows the character of these very competitive applications quite well.
Professor Karl Wohlmuth was also involved as an expert in a quite interesting teaching project. His duty was it to give his expert opinion on Kenya in the year 2045. It was the task to review the current situation of Kenya and to give a prognosis about the major trends for Kenya up to the year 2045. It was interesting to learn from the task that Kenya is preparing not only for the digital age but also for managing the impacts of the climate crisis and the long-term effects of COVID-19. All this is done by reviewing and adapting the constitution and the planning procedures of Kenya, the local development and decentralization approaches for the counties in Kenya, and the whole institutional infrastructure of the country so that a knowledge society and a participatory society can emerge in Kenya.
A highlight of the work was the release of volume 22 of the African Development Perspectives Yearbook for the years 2020/2021 on the theme ”Sustainable Development Goal Nine - Challenges and Opportunities”. This Open Access Publication was received with great expectations and huge interest by policymakers in Africa, as it is one of the few publications for giving concrete examples how SDG 9 (on industry, innovation, and infrastructure) can be promoted in Africa. The recommendations worked out from the authors of the Festschrift “30 Years Anniversary of the African Development Perspectives Yearbook (1989 – 2019)” were already taken up and considered in the new issue. Also, the Research Group on African Development Perspectives Bremen did now mostly finalize volume 23 (for 2022/2023) of the Yearbook with the theme “Business Opportunities, Start-ups and Digital Transformation in Africa”. It was a good opportunity to share experiences with so many guest editors, authors, reviewers, and other contributors. The volume is composed of four Units (Parts) and gives new insights on digital transformation, digital entrepreneurship, and new business opportunities arising in this context. There is also a strong Unit with Book Reviews and Book Notes on publications along the theme. The volume is based on country cases and on analytical surveys. The Editorial Committee for the Yearbook has already decided about the focus of volume 24 (for 2024). The title will be: “Fiscal Capacity and Resource Mobilization in Africa - New Strategies and New Instruments”. Covid-19 and the need of financing for mitigating and adapting to the climate crisis have revealed the importance of new strategies for domestic resource mobilization in Africa and of getting to new long-term global financing mechanisms for Africa’s restructuring and development processes.
On Sudan Studies, Professor Karl Wohlmuth has published two essays to highlight for an international Handbook on Near and Middle East Studies the country cases of “Sudan” and “South Sudan”. It was done in an interdisciplinary manner, covering culture, geography, history, economy, and politics of the two countries. There was also an intensified co-operation with Professor Samia Nour, University of Khartoum, Sudan on “COVID-19 and impacts on households and firms in Sudan” and on the “End of the <Sudanese Revolution> on 25 October 2021 after breaking with the regime of Al-Bashir in April 2019 after 30 years”. Professor Wohlmuth did prepare a note for the international press about the event.
New publications were done on the theme of “Comparing Waste Management Policies of Nigeria and Germany – What can the two countries learn from each other” (written together with Professor Reuben A. Alabi from Ambrose Alli University, Ekpoma, Nigeria). A deep analysis resulted which found interest in both countries. The authors have followed for the two countries the same system of classification for the waste management actions and policies which were discussed. Also, a blog was written about the Aggression War by Russia on the Ukraine and what this means for future academic cooperation (together with Professor Axel Sell). The Faculty of Economics and Business Studies of the University of Bremen and IWIM (Institute for World Economics and International Management) had and still has impressive co-operations with universities in the Ukraine.
Professor Wohlmuth did lecture at a conference in Bremen by Development NGOs about “Lessons from the Corona and the Economic Crisis for the African Continent”. The presentation did outline the major twelve (12) lessons which should be considered by policymakers and donors, and definitely also by the community of development researchers. The conference did compare country cases of Africa with country cases of Latin America, but considered also more general issues of the global health crisis and the health crisis in the Global South. A blog was written on the twelve (12) lessons for Africa by Professor Karl Wohlmuth on these issues (in German).
Professor Wohlmuth did participate at numerous other Zoom scientific conferences and launches of new publications. Launches of new studies, presentations of new OECD studies, and workshops on current political, developmental and economic issues show the advantages of virtual meetings. This format may be a good addition to other forms of meetings and presentations (also for Post-COVID times).
At the occasion of the celebration of the “Anniversary after 50 Years of the University of Bremen (1971 - 2021)” Professor Wohlmuth has also contributed to the Festschrift prepared by the Faculty of Economics and Business Studies of the University of Bremen. He was one of the first professors appointed in 1971 for the research and teaching field of “Comparative Economic Systems”. There was a huge programme placed for the year 2021 to celebrate the anniversary in the City of Bremen and at the Campus. The University of Bremen started in 1971 with various interesting and highly important experiments (interdisciplinary research and teaching, orientation towards practical application of theoretical reasoning, fair participation of all stakeholders at the university, strong focus on Third World issues, teaching the understanding of the evolution of the current socio-economic system in all faculties, and new forms of organizing the university through collective and participatory meetings and decision-making).
Professor Samia Nour from the Economics Faculty of the Khartoum University in Sudan has done important research on the economic impacts of COVID-19 in her country. Her report “The Impact of COVID-19 on Households and Firms in the MENA Region: the case of Sudan” is part of an ERF (Economic Research Forum) Research Project: “The Impact of COVID-19 on Households and Firms in the MENA Region”, and it allows comparative analyses for MENA Region countries. Professor Nour supports the Sudan Studies at Bremen and is Book Reviews and Book Notes Editor of the African Development Perspectives Yearbook. Professor Nour will provide for a short Policy Brief version of the study for the SERG Discussion Papers at IWIM.
Professor Samia Nour writes about the content of her study (see the full study for download: Sudan Final Revised Draft – The Impact of COVID-19): “This paper discusses the impacts of COVID-19 on households and firms in Sudan as a case study of the MENA countries. The research applies descriptive and comparative approaches and uses new primary data obtained from the ERF (Economic Research Forum) COVID-19 MENA Monitor Household Survey (2021) and from the World Bank and Sudan Central Bureau of Statistics High Frequency Survey on COVID-19 (2020). Our results with data from the World Bank Survey on COVID-19 (2020) show the impact of COVID-19 on the employment status that appears from the loss of jobs for the majority and nearly two thirds of households during June – July 2020. We explain that the main reason for the households‘ loss of jobs, additional unemployment, and even the change of jobs was because of business / government closures due to coronavirus legal restrictions. The impact of COVID-19 also appears from the loss of payments for nearly a fifth of households, the loss of partial payment for nearly half of households, and the loss and the reduction of households‘ means of livelihood or sources of income since mid-March 2020 from non-farm family business, income from properties, investments or savings, and income from family farming, livestock or fishing. The impact of COVID-19 on micro, small and medium size enterprises appears to result from temporary or permanent closures of establishments, from substantial decreases in sales, or from stagnation in sales.
Our results from the ERF COVID-19 MENA Monitor Survey data (2021) show the impacts of COVID-19 on the labour market and on the working conditions that appear to result from the increase in temporary or permanent layoffs/suspension of workers, reduced working hours, reduced wage payments, and delays in wage payment for workers in Sudan between April 2021 and August 2021. These results are consistent with the results of other MENA countries. Between April 2021 and August 2021 the delay in wage payments has more than doubled; the temporary layoffs/suspension of workers have increased from nearly a tenth in April 2021 to nearly a fifth in August 2021. In August 2021, the employment status of workers in business indicates temporary layoffs/suspension of workers for nearly a fifth of the workers, while permanent layoffs/suspension of workers had reached nearly a tenth of the workers, and the delays and changes in wage payments had accounted for nearly a quarter of the workers.
Attainment of social insurance decreased from nearly a third of all households in April 2021 compared to nearly a quarter of all households in August 2021. Our results concerning the temporary or permanent closures of business due to factors related to COVID-19, the reduction in business working hours, the challenges facing businesses due to loss in demand, and the declining access to customers due to mobility restrictions in Sudan are consistent with the results across other MENA countries. From policy perspectives our findings indicate that the most common types of support in Sudan were business loans, salary subsidies, and reduced/delayed payment of taxes; these results are also consistent with the results in other MENA countries. Our findings regarding the limited provision of social protection (social insurance) and regarding the importance of supporting social protection for workers in Sudan are consistent with the findings in the other MENA countries. The major policy recommendation is for increasing government support to manage COVID-19 economic and social impacts on workers in Sudan.”
The reports on the impacts of COVID-19 and the following other reports on education, digital transformation, and technological capabilities written by Professor Samia Nour were relevant for policymakers in Sudan and in other MENA Region countries:
1. The United Nations Educational, Scientific And Cultural Organization (UNESCO), UNESCO Regional Bureau for Sciences in the Arab States, Consultancy Research Report “Issues of inclusion and capabilities for establishing the knowledge societies and the potential role of open science in the Arab States”, UNESCO Cairo, Egypt, (July – November 2021) (in Arabic).
2. The Islamic World Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (ICESCO), Consultancy Research Report “Innovation and Technological Aspects in the Islamic World”, Chapter 3 in: ICESCO, “The Possible Futures of the Islamic World in the fields of Education, Sciences, Culture and Technologies”, ICESCO, Rabat, Morocco (April – November 2021).
3. Economic Research Forum (ERF) for Arab countries and Turkey, Research Project in collaboration with South-South Global Thinkers – A Global Coalition of Think Tank Networks for South-South Cooperation (SSC), Dubai International Financial Centre (DIFC), “South-South Cooperation - Technology and Digital Transformation in the Arab Countries”, The Economic Research Forum (ERF) for the Arab countries and Turkey (ERF), Cairo, Egypt (July 2021- January 2022).
4. Economic Research Forum (ERF) for Arab countries and Turkey and the Agence Française de Développement (AFD) Programme Joint Research Project, “The Impact of COVID-19 on Households and Firms in the MENA Region: the case of Sudan”, The Economic Research Forum (ERF) for the Arab countries and Turkey (March 2021– January 2022).
5. Economic Research Forum (ERF) for Arab countries and Turkey and International Labour Organization (ILO), “Second Report on Jobs and Growth in North Africa: the Impact of COVID-19 in North Africa: Sudan Country Chapter (2022)”, Advancing the Decent Work Agenda in North Africa (ADWA) (August 2021 – February 2022), as the part of the ERF-ILO ADWA Project (2020-2023). (Co-authors: Caroline Krafft, Samia Mohamed Nour, and Ebaidalla Mahjoub).
6. Economic Research Forum (ERF) for Arab countries and Turkey and International Labour Organization (ILO), “First Report on Jobs and Growth in North Africa: Sudan Country Chapter (2020)”, Advancing the Decent Work Agenda in North Africa (ADWA) (April 2020 – August 2021), as part of the ERF-ILO ADWA Project (2020-2023). (Co-authors: Ebaidalla Mahjoub and Samia Mohamed Nour).
Links to important partners of these projects:
ERF/Economic Research Forum for Arab countries and Turkey: https://erf.org.eg/
ADWA/Advancing the Decent Work Agenda in North Africa: https://www.ilo.org/africa/technical-cooperation/WCMS_673349/lang--en/index.htm
ICESCO/Islamic World Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization: https://www.icesco.org/en/
AFD/Agence Française de Développement: https://www.afd.fr/fr
SERG Discussion Papers at IWIM: http://www.iwim.uni-bremen.de/sudan_economy_research_group/
Das Bremer entwicklungspolitische Netzwerk e. V. (BeN) veranstaltete in Kooperation mit dem Afrika Netzwerk Bremen (ANB) und dem Bremer Informationszentrum für Menschenrechte und Entwicklung (biz) am 1. Dezember 2021 eine Tagung zum Thema “Lehren aus der Corona- und Wirtschaftskrise für die nachhaltige Entwicklung im Globalen Süden“. Das Programm (vgl.: PDF Tagung Lehren aus der Corona-Pandemie) beinhaltete Vorträge zu den Auswirkungen der Pandemie auf die Erreichung der Nachhaltigkeitsziele und zum Zustand der Globalen Gesundheitspolitik, aber auch Vorträge zu den Auswirkungen auf und Lektionen für den lateinamerikanischen Kontinent und für den afrikanischen Kontinent. Der Bremer Entwicklungsökonom Professor Karl Wohlmuth referierte über die „Lektionen aus der Corona- und Wirtschaftskrise für den afrikanischen Kontinent“. In drei Arbeitsgruppen wurden dann spezifische Themen der Krise diskutiert. Dann folgte eine Podiumsdiskussion mit dem Thema, wie die deutsche Entwicklungspolitik in dieser Zeit wirksamer gestaltet werden kann (vgl. zu der Online-Tagung auch: https://ben-bremen.de/news/lehren-aus-der-corona-und-wirtschaftskrise-fuer-die-nachhaltige-entwicklung-im-globalen-sueden/). In Bremen gibt es viele Vereine und Initiativen, die sich bei der Corona-Soforthilfe engagieren (vgl. dazu den Bericht: https://ben-bremen.de/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/FINAL_Corona-Soforthilfe-Bericht-extra-klein.pdf).
Der Bremer Professor Karl Wohlmuth ging in seiner Präsentation auf zwölf Lehren ein, die sich für Afrika abzeichnen (vgl. die Langfassung der Präsentation - Wohlmuth-Corona-Lehren Afrika-10-2021 - und die Kurzfassung der Präsentation – Kurzversion-Wohlmuth-Corona-Lehren Afrika-11-2021). Die zwölf Lehren für Afrika bedeuten, dass die globale und die regionale Gesundheits- und Wirtschaftspolitik dringend umgestellt werden müssen, dass nationale und regionale Strategien der Entwicklung des Gesundheitssektors in Afrika höhere Priorität haben müssen und viel besser koordiniert werden müssen, dass die pharmazeutische Industrie und die Industrie für medizinische Hilfsmittel und Ausrüstungen in Afrika regional gefördert werden müssen und sich aus diversen Abhängigkeiten von OECD-Ländern und Schwellenländern wie China und Indien befreien müssen, dass die personelle Ausstattung der lokalen Gesundheitsdienste in Afrika verbessert werden müssen und wichtige Akteure näher bei den ländlichen und städtischen Haushalten agieren müssen, und dass schließlich die exzellenten Forschungen in Afrika in den Bereichen Diagnose, Therapie und Impfstoffentwicklung sehr stark intensiviert werden müssen. In einem Blog geht der Bremer Afrikaexperte Karl Wohlmuth auf die zwölf Lehren für Afrika näher ein.
Im Rahmen der Research Group on African Development Perspectives Bremen wird das Thema wissenschaftlich von unseren Kooperationspartnern weiter untersucht, und Ergebnisse der Forschung werden in den Ausgaben des African Development Perspectives Yearbook und in anderen Publikationsreihen des IWIM veröffentlicht. Im Band 23 des African Development Perspectives Yearbook (für 2022/2023), der in Kürze fertiggestellt wird, finden sich relevante Beiträge zu Nigeria und zu Südafrika. Professor Samia Nour von der Khartoum University im Sudan hat wichtige wissenschaftliche Arbeiten zu den ökonomischen Auswirkungen von COVID-19 auf die Haushalte und Unternehmen im Sudan vorgelegt (vgl. dazu: First Draft - The Impact of COVID-19 und Sudan Final Revised Draft - The Impact of COVID-19); sie wird demnächst auch eine Kurzfassung für die SERG Discussion Papers des IWIM verfassen. Die Daten zu den Analysen beziehen sich auf drei Erhebungen. Für die erste und zweite Welle von COVID-19 im Sudan wurde auf den ERF COVID MENA Monitor Survey (April bis August 2021) Bezug genommen; auf Erhebungen für die erste Welle von COVID-19 beruht der World Bank Sudan Households COVID-19 Survey (für 2020). Beide Datengrundlagen und die Auswertung durch Professor Samia Nour ermöglichen es, fein abgestimmte Politikempfehlungen zu geben, die zur Existenzsicherung von Unternehmen und Haushalten beitragen können.
1 Overview Essays on Sudan and South Sudan/Überblicksaufsätze zum Sudan und zum Südsudan
Professor Karl Wohlmuth has published two essays on Sudan Studies, an overview essay on Sudan and another one on South Sudan. These essays were published in a Handbook Near and Middle East States (see the bibliographic information below). The purpose of the Handbook is it to give a country-wide information on the geography, the history, the culture, the politics, and the economy. Only by such an interdisciplinary approach is it possible to understand current developments and conflict patterns, constellations of ethnic and interest groups, and economic and social perspectives. The editors of the Handbook write in their Foreword about the region: “The present handbook reflects a cultural-geographic understanding of the region that covers North Africa to the southern edge of the Sahara, from Mauritania in the west to Sudan in the east, and also in Asia the entire area from the Arab Peninsula in the south and from Asia Minor in the north over the Iranian highlands to Pakistan.” (Foreword, page 1). Both essays also show the rich history and culture of the Sudan beside of economic and political trends; the Sudan is a country which separated into two independent states (Sudan and South Sudan) in January 9, 2011. As both countries are rich in natural resources, there is a base for a dynamic economic development in both states, if conflicts within the two countries and between the two countries can be solved and avoided.
Inside: New Publications on Sudan and South Sudan
Bibliographic Information.
Bibliographic Information:
Wohlmuth, Karl, 2022, Sudan, pages 323 – 350, in: Handbook Near and Middle East States, Topics: Geography – History – Culture – Politics - Economy, edited by Markus Porsche-Ludwig and Ying-Yu Chen, LIT Asien: Forschung und Wissenschaft/LIT Studies on Asia, Band/Volume 9, ISBN: 978-3-643-91136-0 (pb); ISBN 978-3-643-96136-5 (PDF), LIT Verlag Wien/Zürich 2022; Info: https://www.lit-verlag.de/isbn/978-3-643-91136-0
Wohlmuth, Karl, 2022, South Sudan, pages 299 – 321, in: Handbook Near and Middle East States, Topics: Geography – History – Culture – Politics - Economy, edited by Markus Porsche-Ludwig and Ying-Yu Chen, LIT Asien: Forschung und Wissenschaft/LIT Studies on Asia, Band/Volume 9, ISBN: 978-3-643-91136-0 (pb); ISBN 978-3-643-96136-5 (PDF), LIT Verlag Wien/Zürich 2022; Info: https://www.lit-verlag.de/isbn/978-3-643-91136-0
2 Das Ende der “Sudanesischen Revolution“: Nach dem Putsch/ The End of the “Sudanese Revolution”: After the Putsch
Professor Karl Wohlmuth hat in einem Vortrag an der Universität Mainz im Januar 2020 und in einer begleitenden Studie die Bürgerbewegung im Sudan analysiert, die im April des Jahres 2019 die 30-jährige Herrschaft von Präsident Al-Bashir beendet hat. Tiefe Skepsis zu den Erfolgsaussichten der „Sudanesischen Revolution“ war der Tenor des Vortrags (vgl. die PDF Wohlmuth-Bürgerbewegung), da es dem gestürzten Präsidenten und seiner Familie, dem Militär und den Milizen in diesen drei Jahrzehnten gelungen war, einen „tiefen Staat“ zu etablieren, also die Wirtschaft, wichtige Unternehmen und viele staatliche Institutionen weitgehend zu kontrollieren und sich in großem Umfang auch Vermögenswerte (Unternehmen, Rechte, natürliche Ressourcen) anzueignen. Die Perspektive einer Zusammenarbeit von Militär/Milizen und zivilen Repräsentanten schien daher wenig aussichtsreich zu sein. Zur Ökonomie der „Sudanesischen Revolution“ wurde von der Kooperationspartnerin des IWIM an der Khartoum University im Sudan, Professor Dr. Samia Nour, eine umfassende Studie publiziert (vgl.): Diskussionsbeiträge der Sudanforschungsgruppe No. 44, Overview of the Sudan Uprising – Before, During and After the Revolution. By: Samia Satti Osman Mohamed Nour, Full Professor of Economics, University of Khartoum, Sudan, June 2020; Link: http://www.iwim.uni-bremen.de/files/dateien/1833_wohlmuth___layout___serg_44___7__2020_samia_b.pdf.
Am 25. Oktober 2021 kam es zu dem von vielen Experten erwarteten Putsch des Militärs gegen die Regierung des Ministerpräsidenten Abdalla Hamdok, die am 21. August 2019 vom Transition Council eingesetzt worden war. Ministerpräsident Abdalla Hamdok wurde wieder eingesetzt, trat nach wenigen Wochen aber zurück, da die Militärmachthaber ihre Zusagen nicht einhielten. In einem Statement nach dem Putsch im Sudan, das der Presse zugänglich gemacht wurde, hat Professor Karl Wohlmuth die Folgen des Putsches für die Wirtschaft, für die Demokratiebewegung, und für die Konflikte im Land und die weitere Region eingeschätzt (vgl. die PDF Wohlmuth-Sudan-10-2021). Vgl. zu der Presse-Berichterstattung zum Statement von Professor Karl Wohlmuth auch den folgenden Beitrag aus russischer Sicht zum Geschehen im Sudan: https://lenta.ru/news/2021/10/26/ukreplenie/.
In zahlreichen Stellungnahmen wurde der Putsch analysiert, und insbesondere wurde auf die Folgewirkungen für den Sudan und für die angrenzenden Länder eingegangen:
Presseinformationen zum Putsch am 25. 10. 2021:
Frankfurter Allgemeine, 25. 10. 2021: „General erklärt Regierung für aufgelöst“, Link: https://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/ausland/putschversuch-in-sudan-general-erklaert-regierung-fuer-aufgeloest-17601201.html
Tagesspiegel, 25. 10. 2021: „Hafen in Port Sudan blockiert - Putsch mit Ansage“, Link: https://www.tagesspiegel.de/politik/hafen-in-port-sudan-blockiert-putsch-mit-ansage/27736696.html
Tagesschau, 25. 10. 2021: „Erneuter Putsch-Sudanesischer Premier festgesetzt“, Link: https://www.tagesschau.de/ausland/afrika/sudan-putschversuch-107.html
Analytische Beiträge zur “Sudanesischen Revolution” und zum Putsch:
Gunnar M. Sørbø, December 2020, “Sudan’s Transition: Living in Bad Surroundings”, Sudan Working Paper, Number 4, University of Bergen, CMI/Chr. Michelsen Institute, Link: https://www.cmi.no/publications/7395-sudans-transition-living-in-bad-surroundings
Atta El-Battahani, October 2021, “The role of local resistance committees in Sudan’s transitional period”, CMI/Chr. Michelsen Institute, 2021, Link: https://www.cmi.no/publications/7920-the-role-of-local-resistance-committees-in-sudans-transitional-period
African Arguments, Alex De Waal, October 28, 2021, “General al-Burhan: Illegitimate, Unpatriotic, Untrustworthy, and Not a Leader”, Link: https://africanarguments.org/2021/10/general-al-burhan-illegitimate-unpatriotic-untrustworthy-and-not-a-leader/
African Arguments, Various Co-Signatories, October 27, 2021, “We stand with Sudan’s people and demand more AU, IGAD, UN action”, Link: https://africanarguments.org/2021/10/we-stand-with-sudan-people-and-demand-more-au-igad-un-action/
African Arguments, November 25, 2021, “This Is Not a Coup”: Sudan’s Potemkin Agreement, Link: https://africanarguments.org/2021/11/this-is-not-a-coup-sudans-potemkin-agreement/
Gerrit Kurtz/Philipp Jahn, April 14, 2021, “Sudan: What Comes After The Revolution?”, DGAP/Deutsche Gesellschaft für Auswärtige Politik - External Publications, Link: https://gerritkurtz.net/2021/04/10/what-comes-after-the-revolution/
Abrar Mohamed Ali, Opinion, IDS/Institute of Development Studies, 25 February 2022, “Closing online civic space: protest amid internet shutdowns in Sudan”, Link: https://www.ids.ac.uk/opinions/closing-online-civic-space-protest-amid-internet-shutdowns-in-sudan/
On the role of women in the “Sudanese Revolution”: Case studies for the states of Central Darfur, Blue Nile, Kassala, and River Nile/ Über die Rolle der Frauen in der “Sudanesischen Revolution”: Fallstudien zu den Bundesstaaten Central Darfur, Blue Nile, Kassala und River Nile
Azza Ahmed Abdel Aziz and Aroob Alfaki, 2021, “Shifting Terrains of Political Participation in Sudan”, IDEA/Institute for Democracy And Electoral Assistance, Link: https://www.idea.int/sites/default/files/publications/shifting-terrains-of-political-participation-in-sudan.pdf. Bereits jetzt haben sich Status und Rolle der Frauen im Sudan massiv verändert, wenn auch unterschiedlich in verschiedenen States des Sudan. Die politische Partizipation der Frauen ist in einem Transformationsprozess begriffen.
Volume 22 (2020/21) of the African Development Perspectives Yearbook was published in 2021 by the Research Group on African Development Perspectives Bremen and LIT Publishers. The team of editors (Tobias Knedlik, Samia Satti Osman Mohamed Nour, Anthony Ifeanyi Ugulu, and Karl Wohlmuth) have finalized the publication project at mid-2021. The volume 22 has three Units. The Unit 1 is on “Sustainable Development Goal Nine and Africa Development – Continental Perspectives”. The focus in the Unit 1 is on continental African issues of SDG 9. Unit 2 is on “Sustainable Development Goal Nine and Achievements by Countries, Sectors and Targets”. The focus is to assess the performance on SDG 9 for sector cases (financial services and agriculture, energy and transport infrastructure, mining and social welfare). Unit 3 is on “Book Reviews and Book Notes”, mainly related to the publication on Sustainable Development Goals and explicitly on Sustainable Development Goal Nine.
A great number of experts have contributed to this impressive volume, which is one of the few publications highlighting the fundamental and complex issues around SDG 9 for Africa. The African Development Perspectives Yearbook is now an open access publication and is a peer-reviewed academic product. Over the decades (since the start of the publication project in 1989) the African Development Perspectives Yearbook, which is released annually from the Africa Research Group at the University of Bremen, became the leading English-language publication on Africa in Germany. As each issue has also a focus on Strategy, the book is of interest for African policymakers, donor agencies, journalists and media, regional and international organizations. As the 30 years Anniversary was celebrated in 2019, a Festschrift of contributors and supporters was published which contains a lot of information about the achievements and on the perspectives for the future work: https://media.suub.uni-bremen.de/handle/elib/4652?locale=de, and: https://doi.org/10.26092/elib/449
The new volume of the African Development Perspectives Yearbook for 2020/2021
Access for Download to Open Access and E-Book: https://www.lit-verlag.de/isbn/978-3-643-91404-0
The book is described by the volume editors as follows: “Volume 22 (2020/2021) of the African Development Perspectives Yearbook with the title “Sustainable Development Goal Nine and African Development – Challenges and Opportunities” focusses on the relevance of Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 9 (“Build resilient infrastructure, promote inclusive and sustainable industrialization, and foster innovation") for Africa’s development. In three Units key issues in the context of SDG 9 are analysed at the continental level and in country case studies.
Unit 1 presents in four essays the African continental perspectives and achievements - on developing productive capacities towards sustainable industrialization, supporting frugal innovations for bottom-of-the pyramid households, reorganising commodity-based industrialization through the African Continental Free Trade Agreement, and making foreign direct investment work for inclusive growth and sustainable industrialisation.
Unit 2 presents six essays which are focussing on aspects of the eight targets of SDG 9. Two essays discuss perspectives of agro-industrial development and of financial innovations for Sudan and Nigeria; two essays consider the future of renewable energy projects in urban and rural areas of Nigeria and Cameroon; and two further essays analyse the importance of the roads system in Sudan for structural transformation and the role of sustainable mining activities in support of social infrastructure for Zimbabwe and South Africa.
Unit 3 presents book reviews and book notes in the context of SDG 9, classified around 11 categories. Reviewed are publications on SDG 9 and interlinkages with other SDGs, global and regional reports of relevance for Africa, and new books on African studies.
Volume 22 of the African Development Perspectives Yearbook is the first publication on the relevance of SDG 9 for African development.”
The theme “Sustainable Development Goal Nine And African Development – Challenges And Opportunities” is now of great importance for international development because assessing the performance of the Sustainable Development Goals has become a huge global task to guide politics. And, the SDGs are negatively affected by COVID-19 so that new actions are requested to reach the goals in difficult times. Various organizations do researches in and for Africa to assess the performance of the SDGs.
Important actors and analyses are found in the following links and texts:
UNIDO, Africa and SDG 9: https://www.unido.org/who-we-are/unido-and-sdgs/africa-and-sdg-9
UNDP, Goal 9, Industry, Innovation and Infrastructure: https://www.africa.undp.org/content/rba/en/home/sustainable-development-goals/goal-9-industry-innovation-and-infrastructure.html
United Nations South Africa, Sustainable Development Goal 9, Industry, Innovation and Infrastructure: https://southafrica.un.org/en/sdgs/9
United Nations, SDG 9, “Build resilient infrastructure, promote inclusive and sustainable industrialization and foster innovation”: https://sdgs.un.org/goals/goal9
The Global Goals, SDG 9, Industry, Innovation and Infrastructure: https://www.globalgoals.org/goals/9-industry-innovation-and-infrastructure/
The Sustainable Development Goals Centre for Africa, the SDGs and the Sustainable Development Goal 9: https://www.facebook.com/SDGCAfrica/
West African SDGC/A Sub-regional Centre in Monrovia, Liberia (about the establishment of a new SDGC/A centre): http://sdg.iisd.org/news/sdgs-center-for-africa-establishes-west-african-center/
UNECA (IPRT/Integrated Planning and Reporting Toolkit) and SDG 9: https://iprt.uneca.org/agenda/sdg/overview/9
African Development Bank (AfDB), Mission & Strategy, the Bank’s work around the SDGs: https://www.afdb.org/en/about/mission-strategy
The editors of volume 22 of the African Development Perspectives Yearbook had the privilege to cooperate with many of these organisations and with various other research and policy institutions doing projects on the SDGs in and for Africa.
Recent months were busy times for Economics Professor Karl Wohlmuth. He guided the project “Festschrift Anniversary of Thirty Years (1989-2019) of the African Development Perspectives Yearbook”. The Festschrift was finalized as a first edition in November 2020, and the second edition appeared in January 2021. The University of Bremen has republished the Festschrift as a major document on its media platform. The number of contributors to the Festschrift was very high, and the response to make recommendations for a further quality increase was great. It was proposed to move with the Yearbook to an open access system; negotiations are now underway. A great number of suggestions came in to make the Yearbook a real platform for success stories and sustainable reforms in Africa. It was decided by the Research Group on African Development Perspectives Bremen to publish a Festschrift, as a physical celebration of the Thirty Years Anniversary was not possible because of COVID-19.
Professor Wohlmuth and the editors of volume 22 (2020/21) of the African Development Perspectives Yearbook have in the meantime finalized the new volume. It is now in the process of publication. The new volume has two Units with twelve chapters and a further Unit with book reviews and book notes. Professor Wohlmuth and the team of Unit Editors have introduced the content of all the three Units. The volume is quite relevant as the theme “Sustainable Development Goal Nine and African Development” touches issues of promoting industrialization, developing infrastructure, and building innovation capacity in Africa. Also, the Research Group on African Development Perspectives Bremen has released in December 2020 the new call for papers for volume 23 (2022) on “Business Opportunities, Start-ups and Digital Transformation in Africa”. A Unit on “COVID-19 and repurposing industries in Africa” and Units with country cases of digital transformation and digital entrepreneurship are envisaged. There is already great interest to become part of the new Yearbook project.
Professor Reuben A. Alabi from the Department of Agricultural Economics at Ambrose Alli University, Ekpoma, Edo State, Nigeria has finalized important research work for international and regional African organizations, and for the Yearbook in cooperation with Professor Wohlmuth. Also, a major research report by the two professors came out on “Waste Management Policies in Nigeria and Germany”, with a focus on the municipalities of Lagos and Bremen. Professor Alabi has also finalized a study on “Financial innovations and agricultural development in Nigeria”. The study is part of his research programme “Environment and Development Management Nigeria-Germany”. He will now take up again his duties as a full professor of agricultural economics at Ambrose Alli University in Ekpoma, Edo State, Nigeria. In the Festschrift “Thirty Years Anniversary of the African Development Perspectives Yearbook” he gave an account of the role the Yearbook has played for enhancing reforms in Africa. Professor Alabi will continue his work as co-editor of the African Development Perspectives Yearbook.
Professor Wohlmuth was active in evaluating applications for professorship, research manuscripts, and international study programmes. He was again appointed as a member of a promotions committee for professors (associate and full professors) at a university in Michigan, USA. He did reviews for development economics and environmental economics journals. He evaluated international study programmes in Tajikistan. This work was possible only in the form of virtual meetings, what limits considerably real evaluations. Tajikistan is reforming its study programmes also in the field of economics. The study programmes related to economics and business studies in Tajikistan intend to support also the research component, especially so in the direction of increasing the competitiveness of the Tadjik economy. It was found out during the meetings that more international cooperation of teachers and researchers and higher financial support for individual research programmes are quite necessary. While the leading staff persons of the universities in Tajikistan are linked to the government offices and/or the traditional elites, the young teachers and researchers are mobile, motivated, mostly English-speaking, and interested to cooperate with universities in countries of the European Union and with universities in other geo-political regions (USA, China, Russia, India).
The Government of Bremen is on the move to develop a new “Innovation Strategy for the Country State of Bremen 2030” to replace the outdated Innovation Programme 2020 and the Cluster Strategy 2020. Professor Wohlmuth works on the issues of innovation and technology policy of Bremen since the 1980s when his institute produced a handbook “Bremen as a location for high technology industries”. In recent months, Professor Wohlmuth has contributed essays on new innovation policies for Bremen to support in this way a new innovation strategy for Bremen. The COVID-19-crisis gave an additional push for reforms of innovation policies as many industries in Bremen are severely affected, because leading cluster industries (space and aircraft industries, automotive sector, logistics and transport industry, tourism, and others) have to overcome the crisis in the medium- to long-term. The main issue is to combine new cluster and innovation strategies with a strategy to navigate the industries out of the COVID-19-crisis. The Professor has emphasized five elements of an action programme for Bremen (institutional reform component; strengthening the regional innovation system; value-added-focussed and employment-oriented component; further developing the health, medical support, and care sector; and supporting digitalization).
Professor Karl Wohlmuth has accepted the offer of the University of Bremen Archives (Universitätsarchiv) to transmit a considerable part of his scientific research and teaching fundus, with materials classified on eight categories (first, Teaching Projects since 1971; second, Integrated Introductory Study Programmes in the 1970s; third, Research and Consulting Activities on Sudan 1978-2021; fourth, Researches on African Development since the 1970s, Consulting on Africa since the 1980s, and Editing/Publishing the African Development Perspectives Yearbook since 1989; fifth, Shaping the development of the Faculty of Economics and Business Studies since 1971; sixth, Organising the research, teaching, advisory, and training activities as the Director of the World Economy Research Group since the 1970s and of the IWIM/Institute for World Economics and International Management since 1987; seventh, Developing the international cooperation projects since 1971 for the University of Bremen, for the Faculty of Economics and Business Studies, and for IWIM; and eighth, Documenting the personal development and the career of Karl Wohlmuth since the 1960s). Professor Wohlmuth celebrates in September 2021 50 years as professor of comparative economic systems at the University of Bremen, as he moved to the new university in September 1971. He came from the Institute for the Theory of Economic Policy at the FU of Berlin after work periods in Vienna and in Linz, Austria. He was part of a small group of professors who were in the first weeks of the new university appointed in meetings of the whole Senate of the Country State of Bremen, while months later the calls to Bremen and the appointments of professors were done by the Senator of Education and Science. An audio file of an interview with Professor Karl Wohlmuth about his life, his scientific work, and his experiences at the University of Bremen is also available in the University of Bremen Archives.
The Sudan Research Group (SRG) has now released its conference report on the first conference held in Khartoum, Sudan which took place some months after the Sudanese Revolution and the instalment of the Transitional Government. The title of the report is “Towards Sustainable Inclusive Development in Sudan“. The participants were divided into eight clusters to discuss 31 papers around the Conference’s main themes: 1- Macroeconomic Management for Inclusive Development; 2- Bringing the Productive Sectors back in Sudan; 3- Governance and Institutions; 4- Management of Natural Resources; 5- Sustainable Infra-Structure; 6- Social Policy and Public Service Delivery; 7- The Role of the Private Sector; and 8- Gender. The Report was published in 2020 and contains Recommendations on Macroeconomic Issues, Reviving the Productive Sectors, Governance and Institutions, The Management of Natural Resources, Sustainable Infrastructure, Social Policy and Public Service Delivery, and the Private Sector. There are specific recommendations to the Transitional Government, to the Ministry of Finance and to other competent ministries, to International Donors, and to Civil Society Organizations. The full report contains information about all the clusters of the conference.
The Sudan Research Group (SRG) writes about its mandate: “The Sudan Research Group is a UK-based voluntary organization. It was formed in 2003 by a group of academics and researchers who felt a pressing need for a specialized network that brings together multidisciplinary academics, researchers, activists and policy makers in a forum devoted to in-depth discussions of the key and pressing issues that face the country. Dedicated to impact, it aims to produce and promote research and scholarship that may inform home-grown policies to address the country’s urgent economic, political, and social needs.” And the SRG reports about the conferences: “The main conferences and events organized by the Group so far include “Economic Challenges in Post-conflict Sudan” (2004), “Institutional and Governance Requirements for the Future Development of Sudan” ( 2005 ), “Education and Capacity Building” (2006), “Assessing the Peace-building in Darfur”, (2008), “General Education Crisis in Sudan” (with an Open Themes Group), (2016), Training in Communication for Sudanese NGOs” (2019), and a series of Webinars.” Then, “Towards Sustainable Inclusive Development in Sudan” (2019) was the first conference that SRG was able to convene in Sudan after the Sudanese Revolution which started in December 2018. It was convened for June 2019, but was then postponed to November 2019 (SRG 5TH Meeting Tentative Agenda).
Contact Information about SRG: Email address: Info@Sudanresearchgroup.org; Website: www.sudanresearchgroup.org
About the Report on the SRG Conference November 2019 in Khartoum, Sudan: “The Sudan Research Group (SRG) is pleased to introduce a summary of the proceedings of its Fifth Conference, with the title “Towards Sustainable Inclusive Development in Sudan”. Held only three months after the formation of the Transitional Government that followed the end of three decades of dictatorship, the conference sought to provide a neutral space for open discussions that help in shaping the agenda for change. More than 160 researchers, policy makers, private sector and civil society participants engaged in three days of constructive - and sometimes heated debate - about immediate reform programs and long -term development policies. This report provides a brief summary of the discussions on the key themes of the conference and its substantive findings. It should be noted that the messages and ideas summarized are not intended to indicate a consensus and they do not necessarily reflect the opinion of the SRG”. The report is available for download as a PDF under: Final SRG 5th Conf. 2019. Professor Karl Wohlmuth had the privilege to be invited to the conference as a speaker for the cluster Infrastructure. Professor Wohlmuth follows the studies and projects of the SRG carefully.
Dr. Gamal Al-Tayib from UNECA in Addis Ababa is one of the founders of the SRG.
Another important development about Sudan as two thinktanks are cooperating: SRG is joined by SWEA in development work
In the new Sudan independent NGOs can be founded and have space for action. SWEA (see below) is now ready to mobilise the women economists. There are links between SRG and SWEA. SERG in Bremen is cooperating with these groups.
Sudanese Women Economists Association (SWEA): Empowering the Women in the Peripheries through Capacity Building Projects
Women economists work together for a peaceful and prospering Sudan. Sawsan Musa Adam Abdul-Jalil from the Ministry of Finance in Khartoum, Sudan is a co-founder of the Sudanese Women Economists Association (SWEA). SWEA was founded in June 2020. SWEA is collaborating with the Sudan Research Group (SRG) in a capacity building project. The first (and so far the only) project was an online training on a research proposal writing for the students of Nayala, El Fahser, Gedaref and Kassala, but much more is in the pipeline. Sawsan Musa Adam Abdul-Jalil from the Ministry of Finance in Khartoum, Sudan is working now with the Aid Coordination Unit of the Ministry to restructure their strategy. We cooperate from the SERG in Bremen with SRG and SWEA to learn more about the reforms ongoing in Sudan and to support the process of change in the country. It is intended to cooperate on the new Yearbook project of the Research Group on African Development Perspectives Bremen (see the International Call for Papers Volume 23).
The Sudanese Women Economists Association (SWEA) is becoming an important partner for democratic development, inclusive growth, and economic change in Sudan.
Source: Website SWEA
About the Mandate of SWEA:
“The Sudanese Women Economists Association (SWEA) was founded in June 2020, on the ground of redeeming the prevalent gap of women economists participation in the policy and academic spheres in Sudan. Fuelled by the enthusiasm of its founders and members, SWEA aims at building capacities, encouraging and amplifying the contribution of women economists, and of young women pursuing degrees in economics. SWEA strives to achieve this by providing a platform to convene Sudanese women economists, offering networking opportunities and enriching the economic research space by the contributions from its members.”
The Vision of SWEA:
“SWEA’s vision is to advance Sudanese women economists’ participation in academic and public policy spheres in Sudan. Our aim is to promote solidarity between Sudanese women economists across generations, as a key step to build capacity of young women in economics and to amplify the voices of Sudanese women in economic research and practice.”
Contact:
The website of SWEA is: https://sweasd.org.
Source: Website SWEA
Professor Samia Nour from the University of Khartoum, Sudan has published (in cooperation with Dr. Eltayeb Mohamedain) a working paper and two policy briefs on Food Security and Agricultural Development in Kassala State, Sudan. These are publications of the CMI (Chr. Michelsen Institute). The CMI Sudan Working paper Number 1 (21 July 2020) and the two CMI Policy Briefs (21 July 2020) are of interest as the focus is on research done by regional universities and for advice to policymakers in peripheral regions in Sudan. The two policy briefs are based on the findings in the CMI Sudan working paper number 1 (21 July 2020) that analyses agricultural development and food security with the use of survey data from Kassala State. This research is conducted as part of the Agriculture and Food Security cluster in the Assisting Regional Universities in Sudan (ARUS) programme. The ARUS programme is a collaboration between CMI, the University of Khartoum, Ahfad University for Women, the University of Bergen, and several regional universities in Sudan. The programme is funded by the Norwegian Embassy in Khartoum. The importance of these studies is that regional universities in Sudan are participating, and that key issues of peripheral areas like food security and agricultural development are more deeply researched.
Professor Samia Nour is now also Book Reviews/Book Notes Editor of the African Development Perspectives Yearbook. She has advised the editors of volumes 20 (2018) and 21 (2019) and is Unit editor and Volume Editor for volume 22 (2020/21). She is also collaborating with various international research organisations. She has recently published in the SERG discussion papers of IWIM on Sudan’s revolution (see Number 44 of the SERG discussion papers with the title: “Overview of the Sudan Uprising”: http://www.iwim.uni-bremen.de/sudan_economy_research_group/).
Access to these three CMI publications (see links below) which are co-authored by Professor Samia Nour:
CMI Sudan Working Paper Number 1: “Food Security and Agricultural Development in Sudan: The case of Kassala State”, CMI Sudan Working Paper Number 1, CMI (Chr. Michelsen Institute), Bergen, Norway, 21 July 2020, pp. 1-113. Link: Food Security and Agricultural Development in Sudan: The case of Kassala State
See the Abstract (shortened) below.
Sudan CMI Policy Brief Number 3: “Food Insecurity in Sudan as seen from Kassala State ”, Sudan CMI Policy Brief Number 3, CMI (Chr. Michelsen Institute), Bergen, Norway, 21 July 2020, pp. 1-4. Link: Food Insecurity in Sudan as seen from Kassala State
“This policy brief discusses the incidence of food insecurity, explores families’ survival strategies, and recommends measures that may combat food insecurity.”
Sudan CMI Policy Brief 4: “Agricultural development and food Security in Sudan as seen from Kassala State”, Sudan CMI Policy Brief Number 4, CMI (Chr. Michelsen Institute), Bergen, Norway, 21 July 2020, pp. 1-4. Link: Agricultural development and food Security in Sudan as seen from Kassala State
“This policy brief uses data from Kassala State to assess the close link between agricultural development and food security, and investigates factors and policies that can strengthen agricultural development, thereby increasing food security in Sudan.”
Abstract (shortened) of Sudan Working Paper 1, 21 July 2020
Food Security and Agricultural Development in Sudan: The case of Kassala State,
by Prof. Dr. Samia Mohamed Nour and Dr. Eltayeb Mohamedain, Bergen: Chr. Michelsen Institute (Sudan Working Paper 2020:1)
This research discusses the relationship between agricultural development and food security, the determinants of the supply of food and of the demand for food, and the determinants of food insecurity in Kassala State. In so doing, it provides a significant contribution to the current literature. Used are new primary data from a Food Security Household Survey which was conducted in Kassala State (2019). It was found that the majority of households are food insecure (77%), out of which 32.9% of the households are severely food insecure, while fewer households are fully food secure (23%). There is a large variation in households' food insecurity between localities, with rural Kassala having most of the food insecure households. This may be explained by the variation in monthly income between localities.Three hypotheses are examined. A first hypothesis is verified that the most significant determinants of production of food are the size of agricultural land, the available livestock, and the irrigation systems. There is support for the second hypothesis that the family's own production of food and the household income have positive effects on food consumption. It is found that the significant determinants of the production of sorghum (the main staple food) are the size of agricultural land and the available livestock, and that the significant determinants of consumption of sorghum are the family's own production of sorghum, the household income, and the family size. For small farmers, their own consumption of sorghum is to a larger extent determined by their own production of sorghum. Therefore, enhancing production of sorghum among smallholders would contribute to enhancing consumption of sorghum and hence supporting food security. The third hypothesis is verified that better working conditions of the farmers are crucial for family own production of food and are then supporting food security; the probabilities of households being food secure increase with better working conditions for higher family own production .
Investigating the gender gap related to food production and food security has led to the results that male-headed households produce more food and are more food secure than female-headed households. Some reasons for this observation are analyzed. Also, it was found out that agricultural production is impeded by the lack of agricultural land, the cultivation of only few crops, an insufficient irrigation system, and shortages of agricultural services, which are mainly related to the provision of agricultural technology. Therefore, the major policy implication is that measures aimed at increasing household incomes and enhancing family own production of food are important for eliminating food insecurity. Recommended are therefore policies that may increase household incomes and may enhance smallholders' own production of food. Relevant policy instruments may be increases of agricultural land ownership, increases of the size of cultivated land for smallholders, more diversification of agricultural food crops, an improvement of irrigation systems, measures for enhancing female participation in agricultural activities and food security, steps towards improvement of agricultural services, mainly related to the adoption of technology, improving access to clean drinking water and proper sanitation systems, and, in general terms, improved infrastructure which may help in access to food, to inputs, and to production requirements.
Im Rahmen einer Ringvorlesung „Afrika - Der zurückgelassene Kontinent“ referierte Professor Karl Wohlmuth über die Chancen der Demokratiebewegung im Sudan und über die Perspektiven der Bürgerbewegung (vgl. die PDF mit der Präsentation von Professor Karl Wohlmuth zur Bürgerbewegung und zur Demokratisierung im Sudan). Professor Wohlmuth ging zunächst auf die aktuelle Lage im Sudan nach dem Sturz des Bashir-Regimes ein und skizzierte dann die Entwicklung und die Struktur der Bürgerbewegung, die den Regimewechsel maßgeblich herbeiführte. Um aber auch einen nachhaltigen Systemwechsel zu ermöglichen, ist es nach Meinung des Bremer Professors notwendig, die Rahmenbedingungen für eine erfolgreiche Bürgerbewegung zügig zu schaffen. Dies setzt voraus, dass die Machtpfeiler des Systems (Militär und Sicherheitsapparat; Parteien und parteiabhängige Organisationen; Regierungen und Bürokratien auf zentraler und lokaler Ebene; islamische Bruderschaften und abhängige islamische Gruppierungen; große Unternehmen und Kapitalgruppen; professionelle Vereinigungen, Gewerkschaften und Arbeitgeberverbände) auf Grund ihrer ökonomischen Vernetzung als „Elemente eines tiefen Staates“ begriffen werden.
Um den „tiefen Staat“, der innerhalb von 30 Jahren (1989 - 2019) im Sudan geschaffen wurde, durch Bürgerbewegungen und demokratische Prozesse zu kontrollieren, müssen die sozialen, organisatorischen und ökonomischen Verflechtungen zwischen diesen Machtpfeilern erkannt und beeinflusst werden. Die vorliegenden Untersuchungen zum „tiefen Staat“ im Sudan kommen von zivilgesellschaftlichen sudanesischen Nichtregierungsorganisationen und von internationalen Organisationen. Die Studien zeigen, dass es nur teilweise gelungen ist, diese Verflechtungen im vergangenen Jahr seit dem Sturz des Bashir-Regimes aufzubrechen. Im Vortrag wurden die Verflechtungen im „tiefen Staat“ an Beispielen dargestellt und die Perspektiven einer „Demokratisierung von unten“ wurden erläutert. Strategische Sektoren, wie die Telekommunikation, die Goldgewinnung und andere Bergbauaktivitäten, die Pharma- und Chemieindustrie, die Bauwirtschaft, und die Rüstungsindustrie, werden nach wie vor von Militärs, Milizen, Geheimdienstoffizieren, Politikern der National Congress Party, und von der Familie von al-Bashir kontrolliert. Kapitalgruppen, die im Rahmen der Privatisierungspolitik des Bashir-Regimes entstanden sind, geben den Mantel für diese Verflechtungen.
Gezeigt wurde im Vortrag auch, dass die Reformen im Sudan nach wie vor durch internationale Sanktionen, durch mangelnde finanzielle und logistische Unterstützung von Seiten westlicher Länder, und durch regionale Krisenfaktoren behindert werden. Interne Faktoren dominieren aber unter all den Hemmnissen für einen Systemwechsel. Ansatzpunkte für Reformen ergeben sich auf vielen Ebenen, doch zeigen die Erfahrungen seit der Unabhängigkeit im Jahre 1956, dass die Demokratiebewegungen im Sudan schwach blieben und demokratisch gewählte Regierungen immer nur von kurzer Dauer waren. Professor Karl Wohlmuth arbeitet derzeit an einer Studie, die externe und interne Krisenfaktoren in ihrem Zusammenwirken bei der Blockierung von Reformen seit der Unabhängigkeit des Sudan analysiert. Grundlage sind die Studien, die seit 1978 in Bremen über den Sudan angefertigt wurden. Besondere Aufmerksamkeit wird dem „tiefen Staat“ im Sudan in der Periode seit 1989 gewidmet werden.
Quelle: Salzburger Nachrichten, 9. April 2020 (Vor allem die Frauen trugen die Revolution im Sudan).
Bild: SN/APA/AFP/AHMED MUSTAFA
Professor Karl Wohlmuth hat in mehreren Arbeiten die Wirtschaftsdoktrinen des Bashir-Regimes untersucht und aufgezeigt, dass praktisch alle Maßnahmen der Bashir-Regierung seit 1989 dem Ziel untergeordnet wurden, die Ressourcen des Landes (Öl, Gold, Wasser, Land) und die öffentlichen, privatisierten und privaten Unternehmen der National Congress Party (NCP) nutzbar zu machen. Diesem Ziel wurden die Privatisierungspolitik, die Handels- und Technologiepolitik, die Industrie- und Wettbewerbspolitik, aber auch die Infrastruktur- und Landwirtschaftspolitik untergeordnet. Auch der vom Regime initiierte gelenkte Föderalismus wurde in den Dienst dieser Politik gestellt. Die Verflechtungen von Militär, Milizen, Sicherheitsapparat und Wirtschaft wurden auf allen Ebenen vertieft, bis hin zur Stärkung der Military Industry Corporation (MIC); die Instrumentalisierung von Konflikten im Sudan und mit Nachbarländern wurde wichtiger Teil dieser Politik. In der Diskussion nach dem Vortrag wurde immer wieder die Frage artikuliert, ob denn im Sudan Potentiale für erfolgreiche Bürger- und Demokratiebewegungen gesehen werden können (vgl. zur Thematik des Vortrages die Studien, die im Rahmen der Sudanforschungsgruppe/Sudan Economy Research Group/SERG angefertigt wurden; die Nummer 38 der SERG Discussion Papers gibt einen Überblick über diese Veröffentlichungen in: „Sudan Studies 1979 - 2011 in Bremen“, January 2011; Zugang mit dem Download: http://www.iwim.uni-bremen.de/sudan_economy_research_group/).