Info Englisch
In einem neuen Beitrag geht der Bremer Wirtschaftsprofessor und Sudanforscher auf die informellen Netzwerke ein, die Putin nutzt, um die Goldreserven Russlands aufzustocken und so die Sanktionen des Westens zum Teil zu kompensieren (vgl. die PDF: Putin-Sanktionen-8-2022). Für die Entwicklungspolitik gegenüber Afrika ergeben sich wichtige Schlussfolgerungen, insbesondere auch für die Bundesrepublik Deutschland und die Europäische Union. Der Weser-Kurier aus Bremen hat eine Kurzfassung der Studie in der Papierausgabe vom 28. August 2022 auf der Seite 2 mit dem Titel „Putin finanziert Kriege über informelle Netzwerke“ veröffentlicht. Eine Online-Veröffentlichung zu dem Thema erfolgte am 27. August 2022; Zugang unter dem Link: https://www.weser-kurier.de/politik/ausland/putin-finanziert-seine-kriegsoperationen-ueber-informelle-netzwerke-doc7mhlaa9go1e9y7onnfx
Kurzfassung der wesentlichen Thesen:
Putin, die Sanktionen und das Gold Afrikas
Karl Wohlmuth, Universität Bremen
Der Angriffskrieg Russlands gegen die Ukraine dauert nun schon mehr als sechs Monate. Die Europäische Union ist dabei, ein siebentes Sanktionspaket zu schnüren. Doch Putin rühmt die Stärke der russischen Wirtschaft. Im Westen gibt es daher Zweifel an der Wirksamkeit der Sanktionen. Studien zeigen aber, dass Russland überaus wirksamen Sanktionen gegenübersteht. Der Propagandaapparat des Kremls zeichnet ein Bild der Wirtschaftsentwicklung, das durch umfassende Manipulation von Daten zustande kommt. Rosstat, die Statistikbehörde des Landes, wurde dem Propagandaapparat des Kremls eingegliedert. Daten über die Wirtschaftslage werden auf vielfältige Weise manipuliert, etwa durch Prognosen, die sich auf Ausgangsdaten aus den ersten Kriegstagen beziehen oder durch die selektive Präsentation von Datenreihen mit positiven Entwicklungstrends. Die sorgfältige Analyse der offiziellen Daten ergibt ein Bild, das bereits umfassende und auch unumkehrbare Wirkungen der Sanktionen zeigt.
Russland hat bereits wichtige Positionen auf den internationalen Rohstoffmärkten (vor allem bei Gas, Öl, und Kohle) verloren. Die Importabhängigkeit praktisch aller industrieller Wertschöpfungsketten von westlichen Inputs und Technologien bedeutet, dass die Produktionsverluste Russlands größer werden. Die Strategie der Importsubstitution ist schon gescheitert. Der Exodus von wesentlichen Teilen der russischen Produktionsbasis (Unternehmen, Kapital, und Talente) beschleunigt sich. Mehr als 1000 international operierende Unternehmen haben das Land verlassen. Die makroökonomische Politik kann weder die Inflationsbekämpfung noch die Strukturanpassung erreichen. Die Abkoppelung von den internationalen Finanzmärkten führt zu drastischen Veränderungen auf den heimischen Finanzmärkten, da eine lange Dauer des Krieges und eine stabile Sanktionsfront eingepreist werden. Die Sanktionspolitik des Westens ist effektiv, weil ein umfassender Strategieansatz dahintersteht. Expertengremien evaluieren die Wirksamkeit der Sanktionen.
Putin geht nicht von einem Zerbrechen des westlichen Sanktionssystems aus, sondern nutzt informelle Netzwerke, um seine Kriegsoperationen zu finanzieren. Kurz nach der Annexion der Krim im Jahr 2014 hat er den Sudan als „Schlüssel nach Afrika“ ausgemacht, um ein Netzwerk des Goldschmuggels zur Umgehung der Wirkung von Sanktionen zu etablieren. Diese Netzwerke sollen helfen, die Goldreserven der russischen Zentralbank aufzustocken. Die „Gruppe Wagner“, verharmlosend als privates Söldner- und Militärunternehmen bezeichnet, ist nunmehr in 23 afrikanischen Ländern aktiv. Die Gruppe hat die Funktion, Militärregime zu stabilisieren und lokale Armeen auszurüsten; als Gegenleistung werden Russland illegale Einnahmen aus der Überwachung von Bergbauaktivitäten und Anteile aus dem Schmuggel von hochwertigen Mineralien wie Gold zugesichert. Die „Gruppe Wagner“ hat im Sudan ein internationales Netz des Goldschmuggels etabliert; seit dem Putsch vom Oktober 2021 unterstützen die Spitzenmilitärs des Sudan ganz offen dieses „Geschäftsmodell“. Gold im Wert von Milliarden Dollars wird – vorbei an staatlichen sudanesischen Stellen und der Zentralbank - aus dem Land geschmuggelt. Dieses Geschäftsmodell wird auch in anderen afrikanischen Ländern praktiziert. Diese informellen Netzwerke sind für die Finanzierung des Ukrainekriegs und anderer Militäroperationen Russlands enorm wichtig geworden. Goldtransaktionen können durch Sanktionen wesentlich schwerer unterbunden werden. Die Sanktionen gegen die „Gruppe Wagner“ durch den Westen sind bisher wirkungslos geblieben.
Für eine neue globale Ordnung ergeben sich bedeutsame Herausforderungen. Bei drei Themen (Stabilisierung einer kooperativen und effektiven Sanktionspolitik bei Angriffskriegen, Ausgestaltung von Politiken für Reparationen und den Wiederaufbau zerstörter Regionen nach dem Ende von Angriffskriegen, Gestaltung einer neuen Sicherheitsarchitektur zur Verhinderung zukünftiger Angriffskriege und zur Vermeidung existenzieller globaler Gefährdungen) besteht offensichtlich ein immenser internationaler Handlungsbedarf. Der Weckruf des Aggressionskrieges von Russland gegen die Ukraine zeigt, dass neben der Klimakrise auch die Gefahren durch nichtprovozierte Angriffskriege neu zu bewerten sind, da die Existenz des Planeten Erde auf dem Spiel steht. Die Finanzierung von Angriffskriegen und Militäroperationen durch informelle Netzwerke und durch illegale Rohstofftransaktionen aus Entwicklungsregionen wie Afrika zeigt auch, dass die Stabilität des internationalen Finanzsystems neu austariert werden muss. Entwicklungsfeindliche „Geschäftsmodelle“, wie von der Gruppe Wagner in Afrika im Auftrag des Kremls praktiziert, wirken deutlich gegen alle 17 Nachhaltigkeitsziele, die 2015 vereinbart wurden.
Seit 1989 wird von Professor Dr. Karl Wohlmuth an der Universität Bremen mit Unterstützung des Fachbereichs Wirtschaftswissenschaft das African Development Perspectives Yearbook herausgegeben. Die Herausgebergruppe hat nun für den Band 24 (2024/2025) das Thema „Fiskalische Kapazität und Ressourcenmobilisierung in Afrika – Neue Strategien und neue Instrumente“ festgelegt. Der Call for Papers (siehe die PDF) enthält alle wichtigen Angaben zu den Inhalten, zur Struktur und zum Zeitplan dieses Projekts.
Die fiskalischen Auswirkungen der multiplen globalen Krisen für Afrika werden analysiert
Die globalen Krisen (COVID-19, Störung der globalen Lieferketten, Klimakrise, Aggressionskrieg gegen die Ukraine, globale Energie- und Lebensmittelkrisen) haben erhebliche Auswirkungen auf die fiskalische Kapazität vieler Länder in Afrika. Die Steuereinnahmen stagnieren schon seit Jahren in Afrika und die Nicht-Steuer-Einnahmen vieler Staaten in Afrika (etwa aus Rohstoffrenten) sind sogar rückläufig. Globale Hilfen können die wachsende Finanzierungslücke nicht decken. Die fiskalische Kapazität kann aber durch diverse Interventionen des Staates um mindestens 10% des Bruttoinlandsproduktes (BIP) erhöht werden: durch die Mobilisierung von Steuereinnahmen und von Nicht-Steuereinnahmen des Staates, durch die Reduzierung von Steuerumgehung und Steuervermeidung, durch neue Verfahren der elektronischen Besteuerung, durch konsequente antizyklische Fiskalpolitiken, und durch eine effizientere Steuerverwaltung. Diese Aspekte sollen im Band 24 des Jahrbuchs in Länder-, Sektor-, Interessengruppen- und Unternehmensanalysen, aber auch in Literaturberichten und in analytisch-methodischen Aufsätzen zu neuen Politiken und Instrumenten diskutiert werden.
Forschungsprojekte des Fachbereichs und der internationalen Kooperationspartner werden einbezogen
Das African Development Perspectives Yearbook hat zwei konstituierende Prinzipien, die die Arbeit der Herausgeber leiten. Erstens werden Beispiele für erfolgreiche Politiken und Programme analysiert, um die Politik und die Entwicklungszusammenarbeit (EZ) anzuregen, diese Erfolgsmodelle auch in anderen Ländern Afrikas umzusetzen. Zweitens wird jeder Beitrag mit einem Strategieteil abgeschlossen, um den Verantwortlichen für die Umsetzung von Politiken Hinweise zu geben wie Reformen erfolgreich durchgeführt werden können. Der Band 22 (für 2020/2021) über „Das Nachhaltigkeitsziel Neun (Infrastruktur, Innovation, Industrialisierung) und Afrikas Entwicklung“ ist im Vorjahr erschienen (vgl. unten das Foto des Covers von Band 22). Der Band 23 (für 2022/2023) über „Digitale Transformation, neue Geschäftsmöglichkeiten und Start-Ups in Afrika“ ist fertiggestellt und bereits in Druck. Prof. Dr. Jörg Freiling berichtet in diesem Band über eine Fallstudie und ein Forschungsprogramm zum Thema „Afrikas transnationale digitale Unternehmen/Unternehmer“. Der Kooperationspartner des Fachbereichs in Südafrika (University of the Free State) steuerte eine ganze Unit (mit fünf Beiträgen) über den Entwicklungsbeitrag des neuen universitären Digital Development Centre der Universität im Free State bei.
Cover des Bandes 22 (2020/2021) des African Development Perspectives Yearbook
Das African Development Perspectives Yearbook ist eine Peer-Review-Publikation und nun auch eine Open Access-Publikation
Wichtige Ergebnisse der Befragung von früheren Herausgebern und Autoren des Jahrbuchs führten zu wesentlichen Neuerungen in Format und Inhalt, die sich auch bereits im Band 23 finden. Die Festschrift “Thirty Years (1989 - 2019) of the African Development Perspectives Yearbook – Impacts on Policy Reforms in Africa” enthält gewichtige Beiträge von früheren Herausgebern und Autoren und auch Schlussfolgerungen des gegenwärtigen Herausgeberteams; vgl. zu der Veröffentlichung: Zugang zum Download: https://media.suub.uni-bremen.de/handle/elib/4652, und als PDF: http://www.iwim.uni-bremen.de/files/dateien/1837_wohlmuth_festschrift_thirty_years_6_2020_2.pdf. Der erste Band des Jahrbuchs ist 1989 erschienen. Insbesondere für die entwicklungspolitische Diskussion über Afrika und für die politische Umsetzung der Reformen in Afrika sind die Ausgaben des Jahrbuchs von Bedeutung. Das Jahrbuch ist nun das führende englischsprachige Jahrbuch über Afrika in Deutschland.
In recent months, Professor Karl Wohlmuth was busy in various directions. He did various evaluations of research proposals for the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation, specifically for the Georg Forster Research Fellowship Programmes for Experienced Researchers and for the Visiting Research Fellowship Programme of the Centre of African Studies, University of Cambridge, UK, beside of routine evaluations of incoming articles and research proposals. As he was himself a scientific supervisor of Alexander von Humboldt/Georg Forster senior research fellows, he knows the character of these very competitive applications quite well.
Professor Karl Wohlmuth was also involved as an expert in a quite interesting teaching project. His duty was it to give his expert opinion on Kenya in the year 2045. It was the task to review the current situation of Kenya and to give a prognosis about the major trends for Kenya up to the year 2045. It was interesting to learn from the task that Kenya is preparing not only for the digital age but also for managing the impacts of the climate crisis and the long-term effects of COVID-19. All this is done by reviewing and adapting the constitution and the planning procedures of Kenya, the local development and decentralization approaches for the counties in Kenya, and the whole institutional infrastructure of the country so that a knowledge society and a participatory society can emerge in Kenya.
A highlight of the work was the release of volume 22 of the African Development Perspectives Yearbook for the years 2020/2021 on the theme ”Sustainable Development Goal Nine - Challenges and Opportunities”. This Open Access Publication was received with great expectations and huge interest by policymakers in Africa, as it is one of the few publications for giving concrete examples how SDG 9 (on industry, innovation, and infrastructure) can be promoted in Africa. The recommendations worked out from the authors of the Festschrift “30 Years Anniversary of the African Development Perspectives Yearbook (1989 – 2019)” were already taken up and considered in the new issue. Also, the Research Group on African Development Perspectives Bremen did now mostly finalize volume 23 (for 2022/2023) of the Yearbook with the theme “Business Opportunities, Start-ups and Digital Transformation in Africa”. It was a good opportunity to share experiences with so many guest editors, authors, reviewers, and other contributors. The volume is composed of four Units (Parts) and gives new insights on digital transformation, digital entrepreneurship, and new business opportunities arising in this context. There is also a strong Unit with Book Reviews and Book Notes on publications along the theme. The volume is based on country cases and on analytical surveys. The Editorial Committee for the Yearbook has already decided about the focus of volume 24 (for 2024). The title will be: “Fiscal Capacity and Resource Mobilization in Africa - New Strategies and New Instruments”. Covid-19 and the need of financing for mitigating and adapting to the climate crisis have revealed the importance of new strategies for domestic resource mobilization in Africa and of getting to new long-term global financing mechanisms for Africa’s restructuring and development processes.
On Sudan Studies, Professor Karl Wohlmuth has published two essays to highlight for an international Handbook on Near and Middle East Studies the country cases of “Sudan” and “South Sudan”. It was done in an interdisciplinary manner, covering culture, geography, history, economy, and politics of the two countries. There was also an intensified co-operation with Professor Samia Nour, University of Khartoum, Sudan on “COVID-19 and impacts on households and firms in Sudan” and on the “End of the <Sudanese Revolution> on 25 October 2021 after breaking with the regime of Al-Bashir in April 2019 after 30 years”. Professor Wohlmuth did prepare a note for the international press about the event.
New publications were done on the theme of “Comparing Waste Management Policies of Nigeria and Germany – What can the two countries learn from each other” (written together with Professor Reuben A. Alabi from Ambrose Alli University, Ekpoma, Nigeria). A deep analysis resulted which found interest in both countries. The authors have followed for the two countries the same system of classification for the waste management actions and policies which were discussed. Also, a blog was written about the Aggression War by Russia on the Ukraine and what this means for future academic cooperation (together with Professor Axel Sell). The Faculty of Economics and Business Studies of the University of Bremen and IWIM (Institute for World Economics and International Management) had and still has impressive co-operations with universities in the Ukraine.
Professor Wohlmuth did lecture at a conference in Bremen by Development NGOs about “Lessons from the Corona and the Economic Crisis for the African Continent”. The presentation did outline the major twelve (12) lessons which should be considered by policymakers and donors, and definitely also by the community of development researchers. The conference did compare country cases of Africa with country cases of Latin America, but considered also more general issues of the global health crisis and the health crisis in the Global South. A blog was written on the twelve (12) lessons for Africa by Professor Karl Wohlmuth on these issues (in German).
Professor Wohlmuth did participate at numerous other Zoom scientific conferences and launches of new publications. Launches of new studies, presentations of new OECD studies, and workshops on current political, developmental and economic issues show the advantages of virtual meetings. This format may be a good addition to other forms of meetings and presentations (also for Post-COVID times).
At the occasion of the celebration of the “Anniversary after 50 Years of the University of Bremen (1971 - 2021)” Professor Wohlmuth has also contributed to the Festschrift prepared by the Faculty of Economics and Business Studies of the University of Bremen. He was one of the first professors appointed in 1971 for the research and teaching field of “Comparative Economic Systems”. There was a huge programme placed for the year 2021 to celebrate the anniversary in the City of Bremen and at the Campus. The University of Bremen started in 1971 with various interesting and highly important experiments (interdisciplinary research and teaching, orientation towards practical application of theoretical reasoning, fair participation of all stakeholders at the university, strong focus on Third World issues, teaching the understanding of the evolution of the current socio-economic system in all faculties, and new forms of organizing the university through collective and participatory meetings and decision-making).
Professor Samia Nour from the Economics Faculty of the Khartoum University in Sudan has done important research on the economic impacts of COVID-19 in her country. Her report “The Impact of COVID-19 on Households and Firms in the MENA Region: the case of Sudan” is part of an ERF (Economic Research Forum) Research Project: “The Impact of COVID-19 on Households and Firms in the MENA Region”, and it allows comparative analyses for MENA Region countries. Professor Nour supports the Sudan Studies at Bremen and is Book Reviews and Book Notes Editor of the African Development Perspectives Yearbook. Professor Nour will provide for a short Policy Brief version of the study for the SERG Discussion Papers at IWIM.
Professor Samia Nour writes about the content of her study (see the full study for download: Sudan Final Revised Draft – The Impact of COVID-19): “This paper discusses the impacts of COVID-19 on households and firms in Sudan as a case study of the MENA countries. The research applies descriptive and comparative approaches and uses new primary data obtained from the ERF (Economic Research Forum) COVID-19 MENA Monitor Household Survey (2021) and from the World Bank and Sudan Central Bureau of Statistics High Frequency Survey on COVID-19 (2020). Our results with data from the World Bank Survey on COVID-19 (2020) show the impact of COVID-19 on the employment status that appears from the loss of jobs for the majority and nearly two thirds of households during June – July 2020. We explain that the main reason for the households‘ loss of jobs, additional unemployment, and even the change of jobs was because of business / government closures due to coronavirus legal restrictions. The impact of COVID-19 also appears from the loss of payments for nearly a fifth of households, the loss of partial payment for nearly half of households, and the loss and the reduction of households‘ means of livelihood or sources of income since mid-March 2020 from non-farm family business, income from properties, investments or savings, and income from family farming, livestock or fishing. The impact of COVID-19 on micro, small and medium size enterprises appears to result from temporary or permanent closures of establishments, from substantial decreases in sales, or from stagnation in sales.
Our results from the ERF COVID-19 MENA Monitor Survey data (2021) show the impacts of COVID-19 on the labour market and on the working conditions that appear to result from the increase in temporary or permanent layoffs/suspension of workers, reduced working hours, reduced wage payments, and delays in wage payment for workers in Sudan between April 2021 and August 2021. These results are consistent with the results of other MENA countries. Between April 2021 and August 2021 the delay in wage payments has more than doubled; the temporary layoffs/suspension of workers have increased from nearly a tenth in April 2021 to nearly a fifth in August 2021. In August 2021, the employment status of workers in business indicates temporary layoffs/suspension of workers for nearly a fifth of the workers, while permanent layoffs/suspension of workers had reached nearly a tenth of the workers, and the delays and changes in wage payments had accounted for nearly a quarter of the workers.
Attainment of social insurance decreased from nearly a third of all households in April 2021 compared to nearly a quarter of all households in August 2021. Our results concerning the temporary or permanent closures of business due to factors related to COVID-19, the reduction in business working hours, the challenges facing businesses due to loss in demand, and the declining access to customers due to mobility restrictions in Sudan are consistent with the results across other MENA countries. From policy perspectives our findings indicate that the most common types of support in Sudan were business loans, salary subsidies, and reduced/delayed payment of taxes; these results are also consistent with the results in other MENA countries. Our findings regarding the limited provision of social protection (social insurance) and regarding the importance of supporting social protection for workers in Sudan are consistent with the findings in the other MENA countries. The major policy recommendation is for increasing government support to manage COVID-19 economic and social impacts on workers in Sudan.”
The reports on the impacts of COVID-19 and the following other reports on education, digital transformation, and technological capabilities written by Professor Samia Nour were relevant for policymakers in Sudan and in other MENA Region countries:
1. The United Nations Educational, Scientific And Cultural Organization (UNESCO), UNESCO Regional Bureau for Sciences in the Arab States, Consultancy Research Report “Issues of inclusion and capabilities for establishing the knowledge societies and the potential role of open science in the Arab States”, UNESCO Cairo, Egypt, (July – November 2021) (in Arabic).
2. The Islamic World Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (ICESCO), Consultancy Research Report “Innovation and Technological Aspects in the Islamic World”, Chapter 3 in: ICESCO, “The Possible Futures of the Islamic World in the fields of Education, Sciences, Culture and Technologies”, ICESCO, Rabat, Morocco (April – November 2021).
3. Economic Research Forum (ERF) for Arab countries and Turkey, Research Project in collaboration with South-South Global Thinkers – A Global Coalition of Think Tank Networks for South-South Cooperation (SSC), Dubai International Financial Centre (DIFC), “South-South Cooperation - Technology and Digital Transformation in the Arab Countries”, The Economic Research Forum (ERF) for the Arab countries and Turkey (ERF), Cairo, Egypt (July 2021- January 2022).
4. Economic Research Forum (ERF) for Arab countries and Turkey and the Agence Française de Développement (AFD) Programme Joint Research Project, “The Impact of COVID-19 on Households and Firms in the MENA Region: the case of Sudan”, The Economic Research Forum (ERF) for the Arab countries and Turkey (March 2021– January 2022).
5. Economic Research Forum (ERF) for Arab countries and Turkey and International Labour Organization (ILO), “Second Report on Jobs and Growth in North Africa: the Impact of COVID-19 in North Africa: Sudan Country Chapter (2022)”, Advancing the Decent Work Agenda in North Africa (ADWA) (August 2021 – February 2022), as the part of the ERF-ILO ADWA Project (2020-2023). (Co-authors: Caroline Krafft, Samia Mohamed Nour, and Ebaidalla Mahjoub).
6. Economic Research Forum (ERF) for Arab countries and Turkey and International Labour Organization (ILO), “First Report on Jobs and Growth in North Africa: Sudan Country Chapter (2020)”, Advancing the Decent Work Agenda in North Africa (ADWA) (April 2020 – August 2021), as part of the ERF-ILO ADWA Project (2020-2023). (Co-authors: Ebaidalla Mahjoub and Samia Mohamed Nour).
Links to important partners of these projects:
ERF/Economic Research Forum for Arab countries and Turkey: https://erf.org.eg/
ADWA/Advancing the Decent Work Agenda in North Africa: https://www.ilo.org/africa/technical-cooperation/WCMS_673349/lang--en/index.htm
ICESCO/Islamic World Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization: https://www.icesco.org/en/
AFD/Agence Française de Développement: https://www.afd.fr/fr
SERG Discussion Papers at IWIM: http://www.iwim.uni-bremen.de/sudan_economy_research_group/
It is good news that volume 23 (2022/2023) of the African Development Perspectives Yearbook is now finalized by the editors of the forthcoming yearbook. The title is “Business Opportunities, Start-ups and Digital Transformation in Africa”. The theme for volume 23 (2022/2023) is related to the ongoing global digital transformation, with impacts on productive sectors, entrepreneurs, households, and the society also in Africa. African countries are quite differently advancing in the process of digital transformation, as some African countries are even leading in this process by presenting digital solutions to current problems as we could see in the COVID-19 crisis, while others lag behind. The COVID-19 crisis has revealed that health systems, education systems, government structures, financial services firms, and manufacturing processes in industry are impacted by the digital transformation. Digital platforms give access to medical innovations, give information about lockdown modalities and hygiene advice, and provide for local availability of personal health protection utensils so that also those living in remote rural areas and in semi-urban areas can be reached. Those who are working in informal sector occupations get also access to digital media and to digital technologies. The Fourth Industrial Revolution (4IR) technologies are widely spread in economic sectors of Africa. Digital entrepreneurship is playing an increasing role, and the number of start-ups is increasing in Africa. Some start-ups move along their lifecycle (establishing, consolidating, growing, and internationalizing); when they are growing, they become attractive partners of established firms. In some manufacturing sub-sectors of Africa we see a process of “repurposing” of industries towards producing basic goods for protecting people from COVID-19 and for supplying instruments to assist infected patients in hospitals and in care. It is obvious that the business opportunities in Africa are increasing in many directions with the spread of digital technologies; the country cases in this volume are of great interest in this context.
Volume 23 (2022/2023) will have four Units (so we call the various parts of the volumes). The forthcoming volume benefitted from guest editors and editors who selected from the great number of proposed contributions the most appropriate ones, decided upon after a rigorous review process. As the African Development Perspectives Yearbook is now an Open Access publication, it is policy to step up the review process to highest international standards. The African Development Perspectives Yearbook is now the most important English-language annual publication on Africa in Germany, and the publication is of increasing interest for African policymakers as the inclusive and sustainable development strategies for Africa play a great role in all the Units and in all the Volumes. Unit 1 is on General Issues of Digital Transformation, Digital Entrepreneurship and Development of Business Opportunities. Unit 1 contains five essays: an essay on the interaction between productive capacities and digital transformation in Africa, an essay on “Silicon Valley” type-digital zones in Africa, an essay on Diaspora Digital Entrepreneurs in and from Africa, an essay on the role of the finance sector for digital transformation, and an essay on the digitalization of pharmaceutical industries and of health sectors in Africa. There is a country focus on Cameroon and Nigeria in Unit 1. Unit 2 is on Digital Entrepreneurship and Digital Transformation in West Africa, with four essays on case studies in Senegal, Ivory Coast, and Ghana. Focus is on digital start-ups and their environment and on business conglomerates which are growing by using 4IR technologies. It is the intention to analyse the new business opportunities and the opportunities for the growth of firms. It is of interest to study the competitive position of the start-ups and the small digital enterprises and as well the policy approaches of the governments to support such enterprises. Unit 3 is on South Africa, by focussing on the role of Digital Development Centres of Universities to support households and firms in their surroundings. Case studies in the four essays which are included in the Unit 3 relate to the digital support of small female food producers and to the role of digital twinning technologies for agriculture development, while the other two essays highlight issues for the upgrading of education and health sectors through digital technologies. Unit 4 is on Book Reviews and Book Notes, mainly related to new publications on Digital Transformation, Start-ups and Business Opportunities. These four Units give new insights into the spread of 4IR technologies over sectors, activities, countries, and regions through the creation of new enterprises and the digital mobilization of established firms in Africa, but the policy issues and the government actions towards digitalization have also a central role.
The Editorial Committee has decided about the title and the focus of volume 24 (2024). The volume will have the title “Fiscal Capacity and Resource Mobilization in Africa - New Strategies and New Instruments”. The COVID 19 crisis has impacted heavily on the macroeconomics of African countries - through lockdowns and isolations, but mainly through the interaction of detrimental supply and demand shocks. Important issues in relation to the theme of the planned volume are the following: The share of tax revenues to GDP in Africa is stagnating and the share of non-tax revenues to GDP is declining, volatile, and irregular; so there is need to arrange for a new strategy for taxation and for increasing non-tax revenues. As COVID 19 has increased the overall budget deficits of African countries and has created new debt problems in an environment of insufficient global debt servicing support measures, new national, regional and global strategies at resource mobilization are needed. The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) will also have repercussions on the fiscal capacity, positive and negative ones; all this will depend on the type and speed of implementation of policy actions for the AfCFTA. Some social sectors, like health and education, but also infrastructure sectors, such as water and sanitation, transport infrastructure and logistics, will need more investment and will depend on appropriate fiscal space.
Various sub-sectors for the digital transformation (ICT and digital network infrastructure, public support for the spread of 4IR technologies) will need more investment and funds for operations and maintenance. Also, social safety nets for the poor and for neglected social groups have to be reviewed and extended, what can be better done with new digitalization instruments. The transformation of key economic sectors will also benefit from strategies to increase the fiscal capacity and to mobilize resources at all government levels. New foreign debt strategies and new approaches to generate global funds for key policy fields in Africa play a role. The fiscal capacity at sub-national levels is of interest as well as the fiscal capacity at the level of regional economic communities in Africa. Not only new strategies for increasing the fiscal capacity are requested urgently, but also new budget instruments for policy design, policy evaluation, policy monitoring, and policy implementation are needed.
An International Call for Papers for volume 24 (2024) will be released soon. It is expected that again guest editors will assist the volume editors from the Editorial Committee in the further work on the newly planned yearbook edition. Also numerous reviewers will help the editors to support the project.
Access to Information about the African Development Perspectives Yearbook: An Open Access Publication Project
http://www.iwim.uni-bremen.de/index.php?content=345&lng=de
http://www.iwim.uni-bremen.de/afrikanische_entwicklungsperspektiven_research_group_/
http://www.iwim.uni-bremen.de/index.php?content=340&lng=de
http://www.iwim.uni-bremen.de/index.php?content=341&lng=de
Access to Information about the Festschrift for the African Development Perspectives Yearbook (The 30 Years Anniversary - 1989-2019): The Festschrift contains a lot of recommendations for the future work of the African Development Perspectives Yearbook collaborators and partners.
Second Edition of the Festschrift:
https://media.suub.uni-bremen.de/bitstream/elib/4652/1/Wohlmuth-Festschrift.pdf
Festschrift of the Research Group on African Development Perspectives Bremen at the occasion of:
Thirty Years (1989 - 2019) of the African Development Perspectives Yearbook – Impacts on Policy Reforms in Africa
A Collection of Essays, Statements, and Commentaries by Editors, Contributors, Sponsors, and Supporters
Compiled by Professor Karl Wohlmuth, University of Bremen, Chief Editor of the Yearbook since 1989
First Edition November 2020, Second Edition January 2021
1 Overview Essays on Sudan and South Sudan/Überblicksaufsätze zum Sudan und zum Südsudan
Professor Karl Wohlmuth has published two essays on Sudan Studies, an overview essay on Sudan and another one on South Sudan. These essays were published in a Handbook Near and Middle East States (see the bibliographic information below). The purpose of the Handbook is it to give a country-wide information on the geography, the history, the culture, the politics, and the economy. Only by such an interdisciplinary approach is it possible to understand current developments and conflict patterns, constellations of ethnic and interest groups, and economic and social perspectives. The editors of the Handbook write in their Foreword about the region: “The present handbook reflects a cultural-geographic understanding of the region that covers North Africa to the southern edge of the Sahara, from Mauritania in the west to Sudan in the east, and also in Asia the entire area from the Arab Peninsula in the south and from Asia Minor in the north over the Iranian highlands to Pakistan.” (Foreword, page 1). Both essays also show the rich history and culture of the Sudan beside of economic and political trends; the Sudan is a country which separated into two independent states (Sudan and South Sudan) in January 9, 2011. As both countries are rich in natural resources, there is a base for a dynamic economic development in both states, if conflicts within the two countries and between the two countries can be solved and avoided.
Inside: New Publications on Sudan and South Sudan
Bibliographic Information.
Bibliographic Information:
Wohlmuth, Karl, 2022, Sudan, pages 323 – 350, in: Handbook Near and Middle East States, Topics: Geography – History – Culture – Politics - Economy, edited by Markus Porsche-Ludwig and Ying-Yu Chen, LIT Asien: Forschung und Wissenschaft/LIT Studies on Asia, Band/Volume 9, ISBN: 978-3-643-91136-0 (pb); ISBN 978-3-643-96136-5 (PDF), LIT Verlag Wien/Zürich 2022; Info: https://www.lit-verlag.de/isbn/978-3-643-91136-0
Wohlmuth, Karl, 2022, South Sudan, pages 299 – 321, in: Handbook Near and Middle East States, Topics: Geography – History – Culture – Politics - Economy, edited by Markus Porsche-Ludwig and Ying-Yu Chen, LIT Asien: Forschung und Wissenschaft/LIT Studies on Asia, Band/Volume 9, ISBN: 978-3-643-91136-0 (pb); ISBN 978-3-643-96136-5 (PDF), LIT Verlag Wien/Zürich 2022; Info: https://www.lit-verlag.de/isbn/978-3-643-91136-0
2 Das Ende der “Sudanesischen Revolution“: Nach dem Putsch/ The End of the “Sudanese Revolution”: After the Putsch
Professor Karl Wohlmuth hat in einem Vortrag an der Universität Mainz im Januar 2020 und in einer begleitenden Studie die Bürgerbewegung im Sudan analysiert, die im April des Jahres 2019 die 30-jährige Herrschaft von Präsident Al-Bashir beendet hat. Tiefe Skepsis zu den Erfolgsaussichten der „Sudanesischen Revolution“ war der Tenor des Vortrags (vgl. die PDF Wohlmuth-Bürgerbewegung), da es dem gestürzten Präsidenten und seiner Familie, dem Militär und den Milizen in diesen drei Jahrzehnten gelungen war, einen „tiefen Staat“ zu etablieren, also die Wirtschaft, wichtige Unternehmen und viele staatliche Institutionen weitgehend zu kontrollieren und sich in großem Umfang auch Vermögenswerte (Unternehmen, Rechte, natürliche Ressourcen) anzueignen. Die Perspektive einer Zusammenarbeit von Militär/Milizen und zivilen Repräsentanten schien daher wenig aussichtsreich zu sein. Zur Ökonomie der „Sudanesischen Revolution“ wurde von der Kooperationspartnerin des IWIM an der Khartoum University im Sudan, Professor Dr. Samia Nour, eine umfassende Studie publiziert (vgl.): Diskussionsbeiträge der Sudanforschungsgruppe No. 44, Overview of the Sudan Uprising – Before, During and After the Revolution. By: Samia Satti Osman Mohamed Nour, Full Professor of Economics, University of Khartoum, Sudan, June 2020; Link: http://www.iwim.uni-bremen.de/files/dateien/1833_wohlmuth___layout___serg_44___7__2020_samia_b.pdf.
Am 25. Oktober 2021 kam es zu dem von vielen Experten erwarteten Putsch des Militärs gegen die Regierung des Ministerpräsidenten Abdalla Hamdok, die am 21. August 2019 vom Transition Council eingesetzt worden war. Ministerpräsident Abdalla Hamdok wurde wieder eingesetzt, trat nach wenigen Wochen aber zurück, da die Militärmachthaber ihre Zusagen nicht einhielten. In einem Statement nach dem Putsch im Sudan, das der Presse zugänglich gemacht wurde, hat Professor Karl Wohlmuth die Folgen des Putsches für die Wirtschaft, für die Demokratiebewegung, und für die Konflikte im Land und die weitere Region eingeschätzt (vgl. die PDF Wohlmuth-Sudan-10-2021). Vgl. zu der Presse-Berichterstattung zum Statement von Professor Karl Wohlmuth auch den folgenden Beitrag aus russischer Sicht zum Geschehen im Sudan: https://lenta.ru/news/2021/10/26/ukreplenie/.
In zahlreichen Stellungnahmen wurde der Putsch analysiert, und insbesondere wurde auf die Folgewirkungen für den Sudan und für die angrenzenden Länder eingegangen:
Presseinformationen zum Putsch am 25. 10. 2021:
Frankfurter Allgemeine, 25. 10. 2021: „General erklärt Regierung für aufgelöst“, Link: https://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/ausland/putschversuch-in-sudan-general-erklaert-regierung-fuer-aufgeloest-17601201.html
Tagesspiegel, 25. 10. 2021: „Hafen in Port Sudan blockiert - Putsch mit Ansage“, Link: https://www.tagesspiegel.de/politik/hafen-in-port-sudan-blockiert-putsch-mit-ansage/27736696.html
Tagesschau, 25. 10. 2021: „Erneuter Putsch-Sudanesischer Premier festgesetzt“, Link: https://www.tagesschau.de/ausland/afrika/sudan-putschversuch-107.html
Analytische Beiträge zur “Sudanesischen Revolution” und zum Putsch:
Gunnar M. Sørbø, December 2020, “Sudan’s Transition: Living in Bad Surroundings”, Sudan Working Paper, Number 4, University of Bergen, CMI/Chr. Michelsen Institute, Link: https://www.cmi.no/publications/7395-sudans-transition-living-in-bad-surroundings
Atta El-Battahani, October 2021, “The role of local resistance committees in Sudan’s transitional period”, CMI/Chr. Michelsen Institute, 2021, Link: https://www.cmi.no/publications/7920-the-role-of-local-resistance-committees-in-sudans-transitional-period
African Arguments, Alex De Waal, October 28, 2021, “General al-Burhan: Illegitimate, Unpatriotic, Untrustworthy, and Not a Leader”, Link: https://africanarguments.org/2021/10/general-al-burhan-illegitimate-unpatriotic-untrustworthy-and-not-a-leader/
African Arguments, Various Co-Signatories, October 27, 2021, “We stand with Sudan’s people and demand more AU, IGAD, UN action”, Link: https://africanarguments.org/2021/10/we-stand-with-sudan-people-and-demand-more-au-igad-un-action/
African Arguments, November 25, 2021, “This Is Not a Coup”: Sudan’s Potemkin Agreement, Link: https://africanarguments.org/2021/11/this-is-not-a-coup-sudans-potemkin-agreement/
Gerrit Kurtz/Philipp Jahn, April 14, 2021, “Sudan: What Comes After The Revolution?”, DGAP/Deutsche Gesellschaft für Auswärtige Politik - External Publications, Link: https://gerritkurtz.net/2021/04/10/what-comes-after-the-revolution/
Abrar Mohamed Ali, Opinion, IDS/Institute of Development Studies, 25 February 2022, “Closing online civic space: protest amid internet shutdowns in Sudan”, Link: https://www.ids.ac.uk/opinions/closing-online-civic-space-protest-amid-internet-shutdowns-in-sudan/
On the role of women in the “Sudanese Revolution”: Case studies for the states of Central Darfur, Blue Nile, Kassala, and River Nile/ Über die Rolle der Frauen in der “Sudanesischen Revolution”: Fallstudien zu den Bundesstaaten Central Darfur, Blue Nile, Kassala und River Nile
Azza Ahmed Abdel Aziz and Aroob Alfaki, 2021, “Shifting Terrains of Political Participation in Sudan”, IDEA/Institute for Democracy And Electoral Assistance, Link: https://www.idea.int/sites/default/files/publications/shifting-terrains-of-political-participation-in-sudan.pdf. Bereits jetzt haben sich Status und Rolle der Frauen im Sudan massiv verändert, wenn auch unterschiedlich in verschiedenen States des Sudan. Die politische Partizipation der Frauen ist in einem Transformationsprozess begriffen.
Volume 22 (2020/21) of the African Development Perspectives Yearbook was published in 2021 by the Research Group on African Development Perspectives Bremen and LIT Publishers. The team of editors (Tobias Knedlik, Samia Satti Osman Mohamed Nour, Anthony Ifeanyi Ugulu, and Karl Wohlmuth) have finalized the publication project at mid-2021. The volume 22 has three Units. The Unit 1 is on “Sustainable Development Goal Nine and Africa Development – Continental Perspectives”. The focus in the Unit 1 is on continental African issues of SDG 9. Unit 2 is on “Sustainable Development Goal Nine and Achievements by Countries, Sectors and Targets”. The focus is to assess the performance on SDG 9 for sector cases (financial services and agriculture, energy and transport infrastructure, mining and social welfare). Unit 3 is on “Book Reviews and Book Notes”, mainly related to the publication on Sustainable Development Goals and explicitly on Sustainable Development Goal Nine.
A great number of experts have contributed to this impressive volume, which is one of the few publications highlighting the fundamental and complex issues around SDG 9 for Africa. The African Development Perspectives Yearbook is now an open access publication and is a peer-reviewed academic product. Over the decades (since the start of the publication project in 1989) the African Development Perspectives Yearbook, which is released annually from the Africa Research Group at the University of Bremen, became the leading English-language publication on Africa in Germany. As each issue has also a focus on Strategy, the book is of interest for African policymakers, donor agencies, journalists and media, regional and international organizations. As the 30 years Anniversary was celebrated in 2019, a Festschrift of contributors and supporters was published which contains a lot of information about the achievements and on the perspectives for the future work: https://media.suub.uni-bremen.de/handle/elib/4652?locale=de, and: https://doi.org/10.26092/elib/449
The new volume of the African Development Perspectives Yearbook for 2020/2021
Access for Download to Open Access and E-Book: https://www.lit-verlag.de/isbn/978-3-643-91404-0
The book is described by the volume editors as follows: “Volume 22 (2020/2021) of the African Development Perspectives Yearbook with the title “Sustainable Development Goal Nine and African Development – Challenges and Opportunities” focusses on the relevance of Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 9 (“Build resilient infrastructure, promote inclusive and sustainable industrialization, and foster innovation") for Africa’s development. In three Units key issues in the context of SDG 9 are analysed at the continental level and in country case studies.
Unit 1 presents in four essays the African continental perspectives and achievements - on developing productive capacities towards sustainable industrialization, supporting frugal innovations for bottom-of-the pyramid households, reorganising commodity-based industrialization through the African Continental Free Trade Agreement, and making foreign direct investment work for inclusive growth and sustainable industrialisation.
Unit 2 presents six essays which are focussing on aspects of the eight targets of SDG 9. Two essays discuss perspectives of agro-industrial development and of financial innovations for Sudan and Nigeria; two essays consider the future of renewable energy projects in urban and rural areas of Nigeria and Cameroon; and two further essays analyse the importance of the roads system in Sudan for structural transformation and the role of sustainable mining activities in support of social infrastructure for Zimbabwe and South Africa.
Unit 3 presents book reviews and book notes in the context of SDG 9, classified around 11 categories. Reviewed are publications on SDG 9 and interlinkages with other SDGs, global and regional reports of relevance for Africa, and new books on African studies.
Volume 22 of the African Development Perspectives Yearbook is the first publication on the relevance of SDG 9 for African development.”
The theme “Sustainable Development Goal Nine And African Development – Challenges And Opportunities” is now of great importance for international development because assessing the performance of the Sustainable Development Goals has become a huge global task to guide politics. And, the SDGs are negatively affected by COVID-19 so that new actions are requested to reach the goals in difficult times. Various organizations do researches in and for Africa to assess the performance of the SDGs.
Important actors and analyses are found in the following links and texts:
UNIDO, Africa and SDG 9: https://www.unido.org/who-we-are/unido-and-sdgs/africa-and-sdg-9
UNDP, Goal 9, Industry, Innovation and Infrastructure: https://www.africa.undp.org/content/rba/en/home/sustainable-development-goals/goal-9-industry-innovation-and-infrastructure.html
United Nations South Africa, Sustainable Development Goal 9, Industry, Innovation and Infrastructure: https://southafrica.un.org/en/sdgs/9
United Nations, SDG 9, “Build resilient infrastructure, promote inclusive and sustainable industrialization and foster innovation”: https://sdgs.un.org/goals/goal9
The Global Goals, SDG 9, Industry, Innovation and Infrastructure: https://www.globalgoals.org/goals/9-industry-innovation-and-infrastructure/
The Sustainable Development Goals Centre for Africa, the SDGs and the Sustainable Development Goal 9: https://www.facebook.com/SDGCAfrica/
West African SDGC/A Sub-regional Centre in Monrovia, Liberia (about the establishment of a new SDGC/A centre): http://sdg.iisd.org/news/sdgs-center-for-africa-establishes-west-african-center/
UNECA (IPRT/Integrated Planning and Reporting Toolkit) and SDG 9: https://iprt.uneca.org/agenda/sdg/overview/9
African Development Bank (AfDB), Mission & Strategy, the Bank’s work around the SDGs: https://www.afdb.org/en/about/mission-strategy
The editors of volume 22 of the African Development Perspectives Yearbook had the privilege to cooperate with many of these organisations and with various other research and policy institutions doing projects on the SDGs in and for Africa.
Die Ukraine gewinnt im Rahmen der Osteuropa-Forschung des IWIM immer mehr an Bedeutung
Die Kooperation des IWIM mit ukrainischen Wissenschaftlern begann mit einem von der EU geförderten Inco-Copernicus Projekt im Jahr 1998. Neben der Universität Luhansk waren mit der Universität Woronesch u. a. auch russische Wissenschaftler beteiligt (siehe: Final Report „Modernization of Enterprises: Factors, Strategies and Trends“, herausgegeben von der Universität Makedonien, Thessaloniki, Griechenland 2001). Die Kooperation wurde vom IWIM durch vom DAAD geförderte wechselseitige Auslandsaufenthalte für Wissenschaftler und Studenten fortgesetzt. Unabhängig davon konnten im Jahr 2002 dreizehn Praktika für Studenten des Abschlusssemesters aus Luhansk in Bremen vermittelt werden, ein Projekt, das mit längeren Praktika in Folgejahren weitergeführt wurde.
Kooperation des IWIM mit der Universität Luhansk
Durch Forschungen des IWIM zum Transformationsprozess in Osteuropa und zur Reformpolitik in der Ukraine kam es zur Kooperation mit der Nationalen Ökonomischen Universität Kiew. Auf der Jahreswirtschaftstagung des IWIM 2001 sprachen u. a. Wissenschaftler aus Russland, Weißrussland und der Ukraine (Siehe zum Abschlussbericht: A. Sell/T. Schauf, Hrsg., Bilanz und Perspektiven der Transformation in Osteuropa, LIT-Verlag 2003). Speziell auf die Ukraine gerichtet konnte im Jahr 2015 in Bremen ein Workshop über „Wirtschaftliche Perspektiven der Ukraine nach dem Assoziierungsabkommen mit der EU“ durchgeführt werden. Wichtige Aspekte der Reformpolitik des Landes wurden bei dem Workshop diskutiert; noch existierende Handlungsbedarfe für die Wirtschaftspolitik der Ukraine wurden thematisiert. Die Professoren des IWIM (Professor Axel Sell und Professor Karl Wohlmuth) publizieren auch in international angesehenen wirtschaftswissenschaftlichen Zeitschriften der Ukraine (wie dem Journal Of European Economy, herausgegeben von der Ternopil National Economic University, Ternopil, Ukraine) über weltwirtschaftliche, transformationspolitische und entwicklungspolitische Fragen. Daneben gab und gibt es an der Universität Bremen in mehreren Fachbereichen weitere Kooperationen mit ukrainischen Universitäten.
Kooperation des IWIM mit der Nationalen Ökonomischen Universität Kiew (vorne im Bild eine Kollegin von der Universität in Kiew und ein Kollege des IWIM)
Die unterschiedlichen Modernisierungskonzeptionen in der Ukraine und in Russland stehen im Mittelpunkt der Osteuropa-Forschung des IWIM
Immer stärker wurden im Rahmen der Osteuropa-Forschung des IWIM sich ausdifferenzierende Entwicklungswege und Transformationsstrategien erkennbar, insbesondere zwischen Russland und der Ukraine. Während die Ukraine immer stärker eine marktwirtschaftliche Ordnungspolitik im Rahmen der EU-Assoziation durchsetzen wollte, wurde eine neue Industriepolitik in Russland zum Eckpfeiler der Wirtschaftspolitik. Neue Grundlagen für die Implementierung einer strategischen Wirtschaftspolitik Russlands wurden ab dem Jahr 2000 mit Gesetzesänderungen zum Bodenrecht, zum Bürgerlichen Recht und zum Recht im Bereich der natürlichen Ressourcen geschaffen. Das Thema der „strategischen Sektoren“ wurde von Putin nach der Wiederwahl für die zweite Amtsperiode des Präsidenten im Frühjahr 2004 in die Öffentlichkeit gerückt. Herausgehoben wurde in den Medien die Notwendigkeit staatlicher Kontrolle über die natürlichen Ressourcen. In der Ansprache an den Rat der Russischen Föderation stellte er im Jahr 2005 fest, dass es Zeit sei, klar jene ökonomischen Sektoren zu bestimmen und zu benennen, in denen die Stärkung der Unabhängigkeit und der Sicherheit Russlands eine vorherrschende Kontrolle durch nationales privates und staatliches Kapital erforderlich mache. Im Jahr 2008 unterzeichnete er als Präsident das Gesetz über die strategischen Sektoren. Neben den schon bestehenden Beschränkungen für ausländische Investoren im Banken- und Versicherungssektor wurden 42 Sektoren definiert, in denen ausländische Investitionen nur mit behördlicher Zustimmung getätigt werden dürfen. Zu den beschränkten Bereichen gehören auch Druck und Publikationen, Fernsehen und Radio.
Analysen aus dieser Zeit weisen darauf hin, dass wesentliche Vermögenswerte der Medien schon früh vom Staat und von Lobbyisten übernommen worden sind. In vielen anderen als strategisch eingestuften Sektoren spielen seither Kreml-loyale Oligarchen eine bedeutende Rolle. Auf der 2008 vom IWIM in Moskau mitgestalteten Konferenz „Government Relations. Interaktionen zwischen Wirtschaft, Politik und Gesellschaft“ wurde die Bedeutung russischer Auslandsinvestitionen durch Gazprom und Rosneft entlang der Lieferkette von Öl und Gas kontrovers diskutiert (Siehe den Konferenzbericht: A. Sell/A. Krylov, Government Relations. Interaktionen zwischen Wirtschaft, Politik und Gesellschaft, Verlag Peter Lang 2009). Russische Diskutanten empfanden es als russlandfeindlich, wenn russischen Unternehmen Erwerb und Erweiterung von Beteiligungen erschwert würde. Aus Sicht von Abnehmern sahen andere Konferenzteilnehmer keinen Grund, die eigene Position in der Wertschöpfungskette ohne Not aufzuweichen. Wie bedeutsam die Angelegenheit für einige Akteure war, wird durch den späteren Asset-Tausch von BASF und Gazprom 2015 deutlich. Beteiligungen am Erdgashandel und an der Erdgasspeicherung wurden von Wintershall, eine Gruppengesellschaft von BASF, an den bisherigen Partner Gazprom übertragen. Entschädigt wurde Wintershall durch Anteile an Förderfeldern in Sibirien. All diese Entwicklungen führen dann direkt zu Nord Stream und zur Gasversorgung als geopolitisches Instrument. Die Beziehungen zwischen Russland und der Ukraine wurden zunehmend von der politischen Lage in der Ukraine und von der Gasversorgung für Deutschland und Europa bestimmt.
Der 24. Februar 2022 – der Überfall auf die Ukraine beginnt mit Raketenangriffen
Innerhalb von wenigen Tagen eskalierte der über Monate vorbereitete Angriffskrieg Russlands: Bombenhagel auf immer mehr Städte in der Ukraine – viele Zivilisten sterben; Europa und die ganze Welt werden durch den Angriff Russlands auf das größte Atomkraftwerk in Europa (Saporischschja) gefährdet; die Zerstörung der Infrastruktur der Ukraine beeinträchtigt immer mehr die Versorgungslage der Einwohner; Krankenhäuser, Wohngebiete und Schulen werden bombardiert; die Einkreisung der Millionenstadt Kiew durch das russische Militär erinnert an die Geschehnisse in Leningrad und Stalingrad während des Angriffskrieges der deutschen Wehrmacht in der Zeit des Nationalsozialismus; die Flüchtlingszahlen aus der Ukraine steigen bis zum 3. März 2022 dramatisch an auf 1,25 Millionen Menschen (vor allem Frauen, Kinder und Alte); es wird laut IOM (Internationale Organisation für Migration) und CNN mit bis zu 10 Millionen Flüchtlingen aus der Ukraine gerechnet; die Industrie und die Landwirtschaft der Ukraine werden systematisch zerstört, mit gravierenden Folgen für die Weltwirtschaft und für Afrika; die steigenden Weizenpreise können zu einer Hungersnot in weiten Teilen Afrikas führen. Aber: Eine riesige Welle der Hilfsbereitschaft entfaltet sich in ganz Europa. Die EU wird als politische, soziale und humanitäre Gemeinschaft zunehmend handlungsfähig. Das Argument der osteuropäischen EU-Mitgliedsländer, sie seien durch Putin trotz der NATO-Mitgliedschaft schon längst gefährdet, wird nun sehr ernst genommen.
Zerstörungen und Kriegsverbrechen in der Ukraine – Agenda des Wiederaufbaus und der Wiedergutmachung
Mit Präzisionswaffen werden Dörfer, Städte, kritische Infrastruktur, Zivilisten angegriffen. Neben den materiellen Schäden werden tausende Todesopfer und eine Vielzahl von traumatisierten Personen zu beklagen sein. Viele ukrainische Mütter werden ihre Kinder allein erziehen müssen, weil ihre Männer im Verteidigungskampf gefallen sind. Der Wiederaufbau des Landes - unter welchen politischen Vorzeichen auch immer - wird hunderte Milliarden Euro kosten. Russland wird sich an einem Wiederaufbaufonds für die Ukraine so oder so beteiligen müssen. Eine international verwaltete „Abgabe auf die Öl- und Gaseinnahmen Russlands“ wird schon jetzt diskutiert (in Anlehnung an das Programm für die finanziellen Sanktionen gegenüber dem Irak nach der Kuwait-Invasion („Reparationszahlungen“). Auch die Ressourcen der Oligarchen und anderer Kriegsverursacher und Kriegstreiber werden herangezogen werden müssen, um die verwüstete Ukraine wieder aufzubauen.
Wichtige Resolutionen und Kommentare zum Angriff auf die Ukraine
Die Vollversammlung der Vereinten Nationen und die Afrikanische Union verabschieden Resolutionen und Appelle, um dem Angriffskrieg auf die Ukraine Einhalt zu gebieten:
“General Assembly resolution demands end to Russian offensive in Ukraine” (2 March 2022): Link: https://www.undocs.org/en/A/ES-11/L.1
Comments on the Resolution:
Link: https://news.un.org/en/story/2022/03/1113152
“Statement from Chair of the African Union, H. E. President Macky Sall and Chairperson of the AU Commission H. E. Moussa Faki Mahamat, on the situation in Ukraine”
Link: https://au.int/en/pressreleases/20220224/african-union-statement-situation-ukraine
Comments on the Statement:
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„Putin hat die Ukraine für immer verloren“
Link: https://www.n-tv.de/politik/Putin-hat-die-Ukraine-fuer-immer-verloren-article23174318.html
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Der Angriff mit russischen Raketen auf das Atomkraftwerk Saporischschja, Ukraine
CNN, March 5, 2022: “Ukrainian nuclear power plant attack condemned as Russian troops 'occupy' facility”
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Der UN-Menschenrechtsrat untersucht die Kriegsverbrechen in der Ukraine:
“Human Rights Council establishes an Independent International Commission of Inquiry to investigate all alleged violations of human rights in the context of the Russian Federation’s aggression against Ukraine”
Link: https://www.ohchr.org/EN/HRBodies/HRC/Pages/NewsDetail.aspx?NewsID=28203&LangID=E
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Präsident Selenskyj: "Lernt die Wörter Reparationen und Kontributionen"
Menschen an einer zerstörten Brücke in der ukrainischen Stadt Irpin © Anastasia Vlasova/Getty Images
Quelle: ZEIT ONLINE, 3. März 2022, 14:29 Uhr
Professor Karl Wohlmuth has written a new research report on global technology trends and the adaptations of enterprises in Africa (see the PDF in the Blue Series Discussion Papers of IWIM: PDF-Langfassung-WWC-Heft Nummer 129). This report is part of the research programme by the professor on “Digital Transformation in Africa”.
In this contribution it is investigated how African countries can benefit from global technological developments, based on their own technological and scientific competencies and their institutional systems of innovation. The global technological dynamics reveals that the speed of technological development is increasing rapidly, what has to do with the new digital competencies which are prevalent in society and which are intensively used in science, technology, and innovation (STI) activities. Also, the global innovation competition is increasing, and it will further intensify. Africa will be able to benefit from these global technological developments if policies are adapted so that technology absorption and digital transformation are progressing. Windows of opportunity are emerging as the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) advances in implementation. In the phase 2 of the AfCFTA an African Common Market will be established, so that the African enterprises will face a new environment for their businesses; competition and market development will be enhanced. In this context also the technologies for the Fourth Industrial Revolution (4IR) will be used to increase the productivity of the African companies, but these technologies also matter for various social areas and public policy fields, such as health, sanitation, and education. The COVID-19 crisis has given evidence that the digital transformation was accelerating in recent months in Africa; the 4IR technologies are used already in the health sectors of the African countries (but also in other sectors). It is becoming obvious that technological catching-up is determined strongly by the speed of digital transformation. The African Leapfrog Index (ALI) is a useful instrument and measures how African countries can leapfrog new global technologies through their own STI institutions and the available national innovation capacities. The African Leapfrog Index shows that catching-up processes can be very dynamic in Africa, although there are significant differences between countries and sectors in the processes of digital and technological change. The initial structure of the country, the economic geography, the digital and technological readiness, and the policies pursued matter a lot.
Most relevant for digital and technological catching-up processes in Africa are the enterprises (small and large ones, domestic and foreign ones, those in state’s property and those in private property). When considering the dynamics of enterprises in Africa, one can see that there are enterprises which have the ability and strength to shape the market conditions and to reconstruct the business conditions in markets (the so-called “African Challengers”, a term introduced by The Boston Consulting Group/BCG). But there are also some few enterprises in Africa which have global importance in affecting markets and business conditions (the so-called “Global Challengers”, also a term introduced by The Boston Consulting Group/BCG). Although the various components of the digitalization process in enterprises have a different scope and depth, one can say that already many African enterprises follow a pro-active strategy of digital transformation. The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) can also facilitate the development of so-called “Technology Challengers” (also a term introduced by BCG) in Africa with enterprises which are leading in specific technology fields being of relevance to Africa. These enterprises can have impact on issues which are determining the global competitiveness of African products and services. Technology Hubs and Technology Start-ups are of growing importance for Africa, although the concentration of them in a few African countries is not a positive trend for the many other African countries; their enterprise dynamics is negatively affected. But new developments show also that alternative forms of technology hubs and start-ups are emerging in Africa which may contribute to the dynamics of technology development. These alternative forms are not primarily profit-oriented, but are of collective interest; these are solidarity, cooperative, and social ventures. These enterprises are less hierarchical in organization and less controlled by private capital; they are less structured from the top and less organized through central public interventions. The innovative business actions are coming rather from the bottom and through local actors and decision-makers.
The large technology enterprises, the technology start-ups, and the technology hubs in Africa are supported by various excellence research institutions which are affiliated to universities and to private and public research institutions and agencies. The excellence research centres are focussed on key problems of social and economic development in Africa. In the context of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) these excellence centres can lead - according to their specialisation - to a network of scientific division of labour all over Africa, by giving impulses to established and new technology enterprises. The excellence research institutions and the technology enterprises will contribute in their environment to a more productive private sector and to a deepening of Africa’s integration process. The economic and the scientific division of labour will be supported all over the AfCFTA by new Science, Technology, and Innovation (STI) policies for the continent. The Strategic Science and Research Policy of the African Union (AU) is now based on the Science, Technology, and Innovation Strategy For Africa 2024 (STISA-2024). With STISA-2024 a frame was created to impact on six (6) major research priority fields which were selected as most relevant research priorities for Africa to advance STI. These six research priority fields reflect on the one side the relative strength of Africa’s research capacities and the abundance of productive factors in Africa, and on the other side the opportunities of Africa-wide new research initiatives a) for eliminating the many communication barriers of integration in Africa, especially through new infrastructure projects, b) for protecting the environment and the natural resources in Africa, especially by water management and new satellite navigation technologies, and c) for networking the plans, ideas and activities of economic and scientific actors in Africa, especially by introducing new STI policies.
The next volume of the African Development Perspectives Yearbook (Volume 23/2022) will consider in depth the issues of “Digital Transformation in Africa”. Business opportunities in Africa through digitization will be reviewed for countries, sectors and enterprises, and African start-ups will be analysed in their new roles for entrepreneurship development. Units on West Africa, Cameroon and South Africa will be presented in the volume with numerous essays. But there will also be individual essays to survey the theme of “Digital Transformation in Africa” in analytic essays. The book reviews and book notes section (a whole Unit of volume 23/2022) will give information on most recent publications in the field (see the link for the Call for Papers on volume 23/2022: http://www.iwim.uni-bremen.de/index.php?content=345&lng=de, and: https://www.karl-wohlmuth.de/african_development_perspectives_yearbook/).
Recent months were busy times for Economics Professor Karl Wohlmuth. He guided the project “Festschrift Anniversary of Thirty Years (1989-2019) of the African Development Perspectives Yearbook”. The Festschrift was finalized as a first edition in November 2020, and the second edition appeared in January 2021. The University of Bremen has republished the Festschrift as a major document on its media platform. The number of contributors to the Festschrift was very high, and the response to make recommendations for a further quality increase was great. It was proposed to move with the Yearbook to an open access system; negotiations are now underway. A great number of suggestions came in to make the Yearbook a real platform for success stories and sustainable reforms in Africa. It was decided by the Research Group on African Development Perspectives Bremen to publish a Festschrift, as a physical celebration of the Thirty Years Anniversary was not possible because of COVID-19.
Professor Wohlmuth and the editors of volume 22 (2020/21) of the African Development Perspectives Yearbook have in the meantime finalized the new volume. It is now in the process of publication. The new volume has two Units with twelve chapters and a further Unit with book reviews and book notes. Professor Wohlmuth and the team of Unit Editors have introduced the content of all the three Units. The volume is quite relevant as the theme “Sustainable Development Goal Nine and African Development” touches issues of promoting industrialization, developing infrastructure, and building innovation capacity in Africa. Also, the Research Group on African Development Perspectives Bremen has released in December 2020 the new call for papers for volume 23 (2022) on “Business Opportunities, Start-ups and Digital Transformation in Africa”. A Unit on “COVID-19 and repurposing industries in Africa” and Units with country cases of digital transformation and digital entrepreneurship are envisaged. There is already great interest to become part of the new Yearbook project.
Professor Reuben A. Alabi from the Department of Agricultural Economics at Ambrose Alli University, Ekpoma, Edo State, Nigeria has finalized important research work for international and regional African organizations, and for the Yearbook in cooperation with Professor Wohlmuth. Also, a major research report by the two professors came out on “Waste Management Policies in Nigeria and Germany”, with a focus on the municipalities of Lagos and Bremen. Professor Alabi has also finalized a study on “Financial innovations and agricultural development in Nigeria”. The study is part of his research programme “Environment and Development Management Nigeria-Germany”. He will now take up again his duties as a full professor of agricultural economics at Ambrose Alli University in Ekpoma, Edo State, Nigeria. In the Festschrift “Thirty Years Anniversary of the African Development Perspectives Yearbook” he gave an account of the role the Yearbook has played for enhancing reforms in Africa. Professor Alabi will continue his work as co-editor of the African Development Perspectives Yearbook.
Professor Wohlmuth was active in evaluating applications for professorship, research manuscripts, and international study programmes. He was again appointed as a member of a promotions committee for professors (associate and full professors) at a university in Michigan, USA. He did reviews for development economics and environmental economics journals. He evaluated international study programmes in Tajikistan. This work was possible only in the form of virtual meetings, what limits considerably real evaluations. Tajikistan is reforming its study programmes also in the field of economics. The study programmes related to economics and business studies in Tajikistan intend to support also the research component, especially so in the direction of increasing the competitiveness of the Tadjik economy. It was found out during the meetings that more international cooperation of teachers and researchers and higher financial support for individual research programmes are quite necessary. While the leading staff persons of the universities in Tajikistan are linked to the government offices and/or the traditional elites, the young teachers and researchers are mobile, motivated, mostly English-speaking, and interested to cooperate with universities in countries of the European Union and with universities in other geo-political regions (USA, China, Russia, India).
The Government of Bremen is on the move to develop a new “Innovation Strategy for the Country State of Bremen 2030” to replace the outdated Innovation Programme 2020 and the Cluster Strategy 2020. Professor Wohlmuth works on the issues of innovation and technology policy of Bremen since the 1980s when his institute produced a handbook “Bremen as a location for high technology industries”. In recent months, Professor Wohlmuth has contributed essays on new innovation policies for Bremen to support in this way a new innovation strategy for Bremen. The COVID-19-crisis gave an additional push for reforms of innovation policies as many industries in Bremen are severely affected, because leading cluster industries (space and aircraft industries, automotive sector, logistics and transport industry, tourism, and others) have to overcome the crisis in the medium- to long-term. The main issue is to combine new cluster and innovation strategies with a strategy to navigate the industries out of the COVID-19-crisis. The Professor has emphasized five elements of an action programme for Bremen (institutional reform component; strengthening the regional innovation system; value-added-focussed and employment-oriented component; further developing the health, medical support, and care sector; and supporting digitalization).
Professor Karl Wohlmuth has accepted the offer of the University of Bremen Archives (Universitätsarchiv) to transmit a considerable part of his scientific research and teaching fundus, with materials classified on eight categories (first, Teaching Projects since 1971; second, Integrated Introductory Study Programmes in the 1970s; third, Research and Consulting Activities on Sudan 1978-2021; fourth, Researches on African Development since the 1970s, Consulting on Africa since the 1980s, and Editing/Publishing the African Development Perspectives Yearbook since 1989; fifth, Shaping the development of the Faculty of Economics and Business Studies since 1971; sixth, Organising the research, teaching, advisory, and training activities as the Director of the World Economy Research Group since the 1970s and of the IWIM/Institute for World Economics and International Management since 1987; seventh, Developing the international cooperation projects since 1971 for the University of Bremen, for the Faculty of Economics and Business Studies, and for IWIM; and eighth, Documenting the personal development and the career of Karl Wohlmuth since the 1960s). Professor Wohlmuth celebrates in September 2021 50 years as professor of comparative economic systems at the University of Bremen, as he moved to the new university in September 1971. He came from the Institute for the Theory of Economic Policy at the FU of Berlin after work periods in Vienna and in Linz, Austria. He was part of a small group of professors who were in the first weeks of the new university appointed in meetings of the whole Senate of the Country State of Bremen, while months later the calls to Bremen and the appointments of professors were done by the Senator of Education and Science. An audio file of an interview with Professor Karl Wohlmuth about his life, his scientific work, and his experiences at the University of Bremen is also available in the University of Bremen Archives.