Sudanspezifische Forschungsprojekte des IWIM
Economic Policy for Peace, Development and Cooperation between Sudan and South Sudan:
This is the title of a paper proposed by Professor Karl Wohlmuth for the Annual Conference 2013 of the Graduate College and the Directorate of Scientific Research and Cultural Relations of the University of Khartoum, Republic of the Sudan. Professor Wohlmuth was invited to this event by the Graduate College and the Directorate of Scientific Research and Cultural Relations of the University of Khartoum. The theme of the conference is: "Towards a Confident Renaissance". The conference is held at the Friendship Hall in Khartoum and at the University of Khartoum-Main Campus.
The theme Economic Policy for Peace, Development and Cooperation between Sudan and South Sudan as submitted to the conference is based on the recent research work by Professor Karl Wohlmuth on Strategic Economic Cooperation between Sudan and South Sudan (see about the research program and the research output the link: http://www.iwim.uni-bremen.de/EconomicPoliciesInSudan.htm).
Researches on the Sudan at the University of Bremen have a long history dating back to the year 1978 (see the list of selected publications of the Sudan Economy Research Group/SERG with the link: http://www.iwim.uni-bremen.de/files/dateien/1535_serg_38_2_2011.pdf).
In einem Beitrag über die Sozialpolitik in der Republik Sudan und in der Republik Süd-Sudan analysiert Professor Karl Wohlmuth die historische Entwicklung und die aktuelle Bedeutung der Sozialpolitik im Kontext der ökonomischen Entwicklung in den beiden Ländern. Ausgehend vom UNESCWA (United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia)-Ansatz zur Analyse von Sozialpolitiken in Entwicklungsländern werden drei konzentrische Kreise von Sozialpolitiken analysiert: erstens die direkten Programme und Maßnahmen der Sozialpolitik und der Armutsbekämpfung, zweitens die Programme und Maßnahmen im Bereich der Bildungs-, Gesundheits- und Arbeitsmarktpolitik mit dem Ziel der besseren Daseinsvorsorge, und dann drittens die Möglichkeiten, makroökonomische und sektorale Politiken so zu gestalten, dass sozialpolitische Ziele angemessen durchgesetzt werden können (vgl. die Details zur neuen Publikation unter http://www.iwim.uni-bremen.de/publikationen/pub-wohlmuth.htm).
Eine englischsprachige Übersetzung des Beitrages von Professor Wohlmuth ist im Rahmen der Bremer Sudanforschung vorgesehen. Dieser Beitrag wurde im Rahmen des Projektes über die ökonomische Kooperation des Sudan und des Süd-Sudan seit 2011 erstellt (vgl. Link: http://www.iwim.uni-bremen.de/EconomicPoliciesInSudan.htm).
Sudan und Süd-Sudan im
Handbuch Sozialpolitiken der Welt, Berlin: LIT Verlag, 2013
(New Publication: Social Policies in Sudan and South Sudan,
in: Handbook Social Policies of the World, Berlin 2013)
Soon after the conclusion of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement for Sudan (CPA) on January 9, 2005 the Research Project "Governance and Social Action in Sudan" started at IWIM, University of Bremen. It was directed by Professor Karl Wohlmuth and Dr. Elke Grawert. It was the purpose of the Project to follow up the process of transition after the CPA towards reconstruction of governance at various levels of decision-making, and thereby to analyze the conditions for development and a sustainable peace. A network of researchers from universities in Sudan, South Sudan, Kenya, Ethiopia and staff from IWIM, University of Bremen were involved. The Project was the first one approved in the context of the Volkswagen Foundation's new Sub-Saharan Africa Research Initiative, and it got generous support during two project phases (Links: http://www.iwim.uni-bremen.de/africa/Sudanforschung.htm and http://www.karl-wohlmuth.de/governance_and_social_action_in_sudan/Governance.htm). The Project had also a training component as PhD students and Master students were trained. By research workshops in Bremen and in all the other Project Countries the students were trained to do field research in and near the conflict areas (such as refugee camps, conflict areas, border areas, etc.).
Many publications were released by the project professors and by the project students. Considerable human capital was built and a future-oriented network of research partnerships has emerged. The trained young professionals are now starting their own research projects and use intensively the network that was established during these seven years of cooperative researches.
Now the Final Report to the Volkswagen Foundation was released by the Project Coordinator Dr. Elke Grawert. She is now Research Coordinator at the Bonn International Center for Conversion/BICC in Bonn. The Report will be released to the Public quite soon. Economics Professor Karl Wohlmuth from IWIM continues his researches on Sudan/South Sudan with a New Project on "Economic Cooperation between Sudan and South Sudan". There was a rather smooth process towards a Referendum on Independence of South Sudan on January 9, 2011 and towards the official Declaration of Independence of South Sudan on July 9, 2011. However, since these days the relations between the two states have deteriorated to the extent that now - over more than a year starting in January 2012 - the oil production in South Sudan had been stopped because of accusations of unfair treatment by the partner. The oil is produced near the international border in the South Sudan but the infrastructure of Sudan is needed for transport and processing towards export via Port Sudan. Both states now suffer from huge losses of public revenues and foreign exchange despite of the nine September 2012 agreements in Addis Ababa about all the open security, border and finance issues. A Strategic Economic Cooperation is needed between the two countries as the border regions of the two states are of extremely great economic importance for Sudan and South Sudan (Links: http://www.iwim.uni-bremen.de/EconomicPoliciesInSudan.htm and http://www.iwim.uni-bremen.de/forschung/forsch-sudan.htm).
This was the title of the plenary lecture given by Professor Karl Wohlmuth at the Sudan/South Sudan conference in Hermannsburg which took place from October 31-November 2, 2012 (Link Final Conference Programme). Professor Wohlmuth presented in his lecture five criteria for sound economies and sustainable economic policies in Sudan and South Sudan:
First, macroeconomic stability has to be provided. Because of the stop of oil production in January 2012 by the government of South Sudan the macroeconomic instability problems were even aggravated in both countries and they are still severe.
Second, a medium term public finance framework is needed for both countries, especially so because of the volatility of oil revenues and the low importance of non-oil exports. Such medium-term public finance frameworks are not in place, and there is no Permanent Fund/Permanent Income approach at work to smooth the expenditures from the oil revenues towards stabilization and long-term development objectives.
Third, a redirection of exports towards non-oil products is needed in both countries. However, the time since January 9, 2005 (Comprehensive Peace Agreement) was not used in the two countries for generating non-oil exports. Despite of the huge agricultural resources and the agro-industrial opportunities, both countries are large-scale food importers.
Fourth, effective social safety nets are needed to protect the poor and the poorest, but also the middle class which became impoverished in recent years, as the available rudimentary social safety systems have rather deteriorated. Public interventions in health and education sectors as well as towards the functioning of the labour market were highly inefficient and ineffective, and macroeconomic policies were not pro-poor.
Fifth, effective reductions of horizontal and vertical inequalities are requested but the reality in both states is that the regional imbalances and the income inequalities have rather increased. This has repercussions on political stability in both countries and on the perspectives of cooperation in the border-belt.
Professor Karl Wohlmuth at the opening of the Plenary Session on Economic Issues in Sudan and South Sudan
Professor Wohlmuth also commented on the Nine Agreements between the two countries from September 27, 2012 at Addis Ababa and on the future tasks to promote a strategic economic cooperation between Sudan and South Sudan. Five core programmes for a strategic economic cooperation were presented (see PDF Sudan-South Sudan-Conference Presentation). Other contributions to the Conference were made by the Chairman of the Anti-Corruption Commission in Juba, South Sudan on the fight against corruption in South Sudan, by the General Secretary of SPLM/N on the situation in Darfur, South Kordofan, Blue Nile, and Khartoum by highlighting the perspectives for peaceful solutions. The former head of UNMIS in Juba spoke on national and regional challenges for the two states and the role of outsiders. The current situation of Abyei area was considered by a Member of the South Sudan Parliament representing Abyei in Juba.
Professor Karl Wohlmuth, University of Bremen, Justice John Gatwech Lul, Chairman of the Anti-Corruption Commission, Juba, South Sudan, and Marina Peter, Sudan Focal Point Europe and Conference Chair in a Plenary Discussion on Corruption in Sudan and South Sudan
The conference was attended by around 120 participants, among others by representatives of the civil society of Sudan and South Sudan, by regional and international church organizations and NGOs, by government organizations and ambassadors of Sudan and South Sudan, by media people and researchers on Sudan, by members of the German parliament, by the donor community, and by representatives from the SPLM/N speaking for ethnic and disadvantaged groups in South Kordofan and Blue Nile States. The Conference Communique (see Communique Hermannsburg Conference) presents a call for peace, reconciliation and good neighbourliness. The communique emphasizes also: "To avoid new conflicts and ensure sustainable peace, natural resource management and equitable sharing of resources should be a top priority at all levels in society starting from the bottom-up. Oil is a key element, but a sound economy needs to be built on diversified sources of income. A strategic approach for economic relations between Sudan and South Sudan, with a special focus on the border areas, could help to safeguard peace and good neigbourliness. However, a prerequisite is to immediately address the needs of the people, and the end of armed conflicts."
This Sudan/South Sudan Conference was the 25th in Hermannsburg which was directed by Marina Peter and Hermann Hartmann (see the leaflet informing about these 25 conferences: Leaflet Hermannsburg Conferences).
25 Years of Sudan Conferences in Hermannsburg, Lower Saxony:
The 25th Sudan /South Sudan Conference will be held October 31 - November 2, 2012. Leading personalities from Sudan and South Sudan will attend the conference to exchange views on the current situation and to discuss strategies to create conditions of lasting peace and to provide preconditions for economic development and mutually beneficial cooperation.
Since 1987 every year an international Sudan Conference was held in Hermannsburg, organized by the Sudan Forum e. V. and the Sudan Focal Point Europa. The open exchange of views in Hermannsburg between Sudan Government representatives and SPLM representatives has since 1987 contributed to the process that ultimately led to the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) of January 9, 2005. Now the new problems between Sudan and South Sudan have to be addressed – the still open separation issues and the unsolved CPA issues. Although nine agreements between the two countries were signed on September 27, 2012 in Addis Ababa, major issues are still open. Also the implementation of the nine agreements has to get started.
This year the conference is sponsored by Brot für die Welt and by Misereor. Main topics of the Sudan/South Sudan Conference 2012 are the preconditions of lasting peace and the recognition of the rights of the people, the moves towards sound economic policies in the two countries and a strategic economic cooperation between Sudan and South Sudan, and the ways to overcome the conflicts in Abyei, Darfur, South Kordofan, Blue Nile, and in other areas of the two countries (Link to Programme).
Various agreements were signed in Addis Ababa on September 27, 2012 concerning unsolved CPA/Comprehensive Peace Agreement Issues and Post-Secession Issues. Nine documents with Agreements emerged from the Sudan and South Sudan Addis Ababa Summit. Two further documents are of great relevance as they are on the unsolved Abyei Issue, one from the African Union (an AU Proposal on the status of Abyei submitted to the two parties in the conflict on 24 September 2012) and the other to the African Union (the Rejection Letter by President Bashir on 26 September 2012 to the AU). These documents are available as full texts (http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?rubrique13). Also other relevant documents can be looked at and downloaded at this website.
Implementation of these nine agreements can be better watched when the texts are looked at in full details and in the context of prior documents and the AU/UNSC Resolutions.
The Cooperation Agreement is particularly weak and vague and does not cover the main issues for a sustainable long-term economic and political cooperation of the two countries (see on these issues the Strategic Framework for Economic Cooperation between Sudan and South Sudan with five core cooperation programmes and five supplementary cooperation programmes as outlined by Professor Karl Wohlmuth (http://www.iwim.uni-bremen.de/files/dateien/1411_short_wohlmuth_bonn_6_2012.pdf).
There are severe doubts that the agreement which was negotiated by the mediator of the African Union (AU) will last for long. The agreement may only bring the resumption of oil production but not sustainable solutions to other open issues between the two countries. Professor Karl Wohlmuth has written a Report on the negotiation issues and on future development cooperation and has proposed a Strategic Framework for Economic Cooperation between Sudan and South Sudan. According to his study four complex negotiation complexes have to be solved in a "package agreement" and five areas of economic cooperation matter for future development in the two countries (Links to Paper and to Presentation).
Professor Karl Wohlmuth presented a Strategic Framework for Economic Cooperation between Sudan and South Sudan in a Plenary Session at the International Sudan/South Sudan Studies Conference in Bonn (see the programme). First, he analyzed the growth model of Sudan since Independence and presented the constraints and weaknesses. Second, he emphasized the need to look at the various forms and the levels of interdependence which are persisting between the two states. Beside of the interdependence with regard of the oil sector there are so many other forms, such as the interdependence of the border-states, policy interdependence and the interdependence in environment, climate change adaptation and land policies. Also the persisting causes of conflicts in the two Sudans were discussed, especially the horizontal inequalities between "identity groups" in states, regions, and counties; but also such causes of conflict as vertical inequalities, "creed" and "greed", weak state institutions, lack of commitment and trust, and the duration of conflicts were analyzed and related to the two Sudans. The high degree of interdependence between the two Sudans and the high levels of horizontal inequality with cross-border effects request forms of economic cooperation between the two states. As well, the three basic concepts "strategy", "framework" and "cooperation" were presented with regard of the current issues. Third, the feasibility of and the preconditions for the Strategic Framework were discussed, by looking first at the four major negotiation complexes ("border, oil and hydropower"; "citizenship, refugees, and human rights", "debt, assets and finance"; and "security, demilitarization and stability") and then at the feasibility conditions for such a Framework (when regarding key determinants such as interdependence, external instability, opportunities and options). The merits of such a fully negotiated programme are compared with the "Roadmap" of the African Union Peace and Security Council (AUPSC). Fourth, five core cooperation programmes and five supplementary cooperation programmes were presented; while the core programmes aim at modifying the growth model of the two Sudans, the supplementary programmes support this turn towards a sustainable growth model. Cooperation potentials are outlined for all the ten programmes; there are huge opportunities which can be realized in the long-term. These programmes are based on bottom-up growth strategies and are needed prior to and in addition to the conventional top-down growth strategies; growth diagnostics at state levels is used to pursue the new approach. Fifth, the first steps towards initiating such a programme were also presented.
In a working group chaired by Professor Wohlmuth on the "Economic Development of the Border-States in Sudan and South Sudan" the centrality of these ten states as a powerhouse and as a growth pole on the one side and as a region affected by conflicts and war(s) on the other side was discussed. Proposals for peace, reconstruction and development were presented by the panel speakers. Two experts from the Sudan and two experts from South Sudan were invited and presented their analyses. The growth diagnostics approach was applied to two states in the border-region (Blue Nile State in Sudan and Western Bahr el Ghazal State in South Sudan). Cross-border cooperation of indigenous population groups was outlined with regard of South Kordofan and North Bahr el Ghazal. The history of oil politics was discussed with regard of the political decisions for the location of refineries and oil installations.
The presentation A Strategic Framework for Economic Cooperation between Sudan and South Sudan by Professor Wohlmuth at the International Sudan/South Sudan Conference in Bonn is available as a PDF (Presentation).
The preliminary programme of the World Congress on Sudan Studies was just released (see details unter http://www.iwim.uni-bremen.de/files/dateien/1656_international_sudan_studies_conference_6_provisional_agenda_6_2012.pdf). The programme is composed of plenary sessions and parallel panel sessions. Various important issues of the two Sudan will be discussed with an interdisciplinary focus, and especially so the current political and economic developments in the two states of Sudan will be given attention by a great number of international scholars.
Some of the major issues discussed are: Economic Development of the Border States in Sudan and South Sudan; Border Politics; Old and New National Identities in the two Sudan; Language and Society; New Citizenship; Constitutions; Youth in the two Sudan; Peace and Peace-Building; Security Challenges; Land Issues; South Sudan in the Wider Region; Aid and Development; Economic Issues and Natural Resources; and Water Issues.
The conference is organised by leading researchers on the two Sudan from three research institutions/scientific societies: Dr. Elke Grawert, Bonn International Center for Conversion/BICC, Bonn for the German side, Douglas H. Johnson, Oxford University, for the Sudan Studies Society UK/ SSSUK, and Dr. Abdullahi A. Gallab, Arizona State University, for the Sudan Studies Association USA/SSA USA.
The programme - as it is regularly updated - will be accessible at: http://www.bicc.de/events/2012-2/international-sudan-and-south-sudan-studies-conference.html
A great number of participants from Sudan and South Sudan is also expected to come to Bonn. Because of the dramatic current problems and tensions between Sudan and the newly independent state of South Sudan a great interest of the international press is also expected.
Venue: Rheinische Friedrich-Wilhelms-Universität Bonn, Reginal Pacis-Weg 3, HS 1,7,8,9, Bonn, Germany
Date: 23-25 July 2012
Submission of Abstracts for Papers and Proposals for Panels: The International Sudan Studies Conference will take place this year in Bonn, Rheinische Friedrich-Wilhelms-Universität Bonn, 23-25 July 2012, organized by Dr. Elke Grawert, a former IWIM staff and now working as a senior researcher at BICC in Bonn. The Call for Papers (Link to Call for Papers) invites submissions in line with the general theme of the conference, but also other submissions of interest to researchers on Sudan and South Sudan are welcomed. The three-annual International Sudan Studies Conference of the Sudan Studies Association (SSA) USA and the Sudan Studies Society (SSS) UK will be held at the University of Bonn in Germany. Abstracts of proposed papers, panels and roundtables (please limit to 150-200 words) may be sent to: Dr. Abdullahi A. Gallab, African and African-American Studies, Religious Studies, Arizona State University, Email: firstname.lastname@example.org. A copy may be sent to Dr. Douglas H. Johnson, Email: email@example.com and to Dr. Elke Grawert, Email: firstname.lastname@example.org until 31st of March 2012.
Programme: The conference will open with an emphasis on identity, especially issues of gender, citizenship, integration, history, memory and the geographical challenges of the separation. Its second day will be devoted to economic issues, particularly economic development prospects, urbanization and social transformation in Sudanand South Sudan and issues regarding oil, water and other resources. The conference's final day will examine both internal and external power relationships including Sudan-South Sudan relations, old and new conflicts, party formation and strategic and security issues.